The ANC and South Africa

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes political scenarios for South Africa leading up to 2029, focusing on the internal divisions of the African National Congress (ANC) and their impact on economic growth and national security.

• The most probable political outcome is the 'Bafana Bafana' scenario, where Cyril Ramaphosa is re-elected as ANC president in December 2022 despite deep party divisions. In this scenario, the ANC's support is projected to decline to 48% in 2024 and 43% by 2029, necessitating the formation of governing coalitions.
• Alternative scenarios depend on the success of the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction. A decisive win for the reformist camp ('Thuma Mina') could see ANC support grow to 53% by 2029. Conversely, an RET victory could lead to a 'Nation Divided' scenario where the ANC loses significant support, or a 'Mandela Magic' scenario where Ramaphosa forms a separate party and leads a pro-growth coalition government.
• South Africa's economic outlook is characterized by low growth that is insufficient to address systemic socio-economic issues. The report forecasts a modest average growth of 2.4% to 2029, which will not be enough to reduce unemployment and poverty. Over 30 million people, or half the population, live in extreme poverty.
• The report identifies a critical crisis in South Africa's security sector, noting that agencies are suffering from neglect, politicization, and poor management. This has left them unable to effectively manage rising insecurity and crime.
• To achieve a high-growth economic strategy, the report argues that a future government must abandon several core ANC policy tenets, specifically those regarding black economic empowerment, the lack of distinction between party and state, and land reform without compensation.
• The report notes a trend of political activity shifting outside of formal spheres, which is undermining the legitimacy of state institutions. Additionally, the ANC is losing support in urban and metropolitan areas, becoming more dependent on rural bases and traditional leaders.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2022). The ANC and South Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1716192278280-2024-05-20-SAR-48-updated.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. The ANC and South Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1716192278280-2024-05-20-SAR-48-updated.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022anc, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The ANC and South Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1716192278280-2024-05-20-SAR-48-updated.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }