From lockdown to Thuma Mina

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes South Africa's economic trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic. It compares a 'Current Path' of stagnation with a 'Thuma Mina' scenario based on structural reforms across health, education, energy, industrialization, investment, and agriculture. The author argues that while the pandemic has created a precarious economic situation, it also provides an opportunity to forge a new social compact and implement evidence-based policies to avoid a long-term crisis.

• South Africa's current development trajectory is considered unsustainable, with the country falling behind global peers and facing a potential crisis. The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a long-term growth forecast of 1.9% through 2044, a rate deemed insufficient to reduce inequality, alleviate poverty, or increase employment.
• The 'Thuma Mina' scenario proposes that implementing evidence-based economic policies and a pro-growth social compact could make the South African economy nearly 50% larger by 2044 than the 'Current Path' forecast. Under this scenario, the economy would reach a value of US$1.230 trillion, compared to US$834 billion on the Current Path.
• Modern industrialization is identified as the most significant driver of income growth in the Thuma Mina scenario, contributing 45% to the increase in average income by 2044. This is followed by energy reforms, which contribute 17%.
• The report forecasts a significant difference in extreme poverty levels by 2044 based on the chosen path. On the Current Path, 51% of the population is expected to live in extreme poverty, whereas the Thuma Mina scenario could reduce this figure to 39%.
• Energy supply was the primary constraint on growth until April 2020, but the COVID-19 contraction temporarily eased electricity demand. However, the report warns that limited supply will re-emerge as a medium- to long-term constraint unless the government adopts a least-cost energy solution and relaxes constraints on renewables.
• The Thuma Mina scenario outlines specific sectoral reforms: improving healthcare management and pursuing universal healthcare; focusing education on STEM and vocational training for the Fourth Industrial Revolution; pursuing a least-cost energy mix; increasing R&D to 1.5% of GDP; and providing tenure security in former homelands for land reform.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). From lockdown to Thuma Mina. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb142-2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. From lockdown to Thuma Mina. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb142-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=From lockdown to Thuma Mina |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb142-2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020from, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{From lockdown to Thuma Mina}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb142-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }