RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT

The report compares a 'base case' trajectory for the Democratic Republic of Congo with several sectoral scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It finds that while the combined scenario significantly boosts GDP and reduces extreme poverty and inequality, it also leads to higher carbon emissions. Industrialization and manufacturing are identified as the most impactful drivers for long-term GDP per capita growth, while agriculture provides the strongest short-to-medium term gains. The report emphasizes the need for a green energy transition to mitigate the environmental costs of this economic growth.

• The 'Industrialisation/ Industrie manufacturière' scenario is projected to have the highest long-term impact on GDP per capita by 2043, increasing it by $283 USD compared to the current trajectory. Other significant contributors include governance ($207) and the AfCFTA/ZLECAf ($176).
• In the short and medium term (by 2035), the Agriculture scenario is expected to be the most beneficial for GDP per capita, raising it to $1,809 USD, which is an $83 USD increase over the base trajectory.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo is not on track to meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030; the base trajectory predicts 65.7% of the population (84.1 million people) will remain in extreme poverty. The combined Agenda 2063 scenario would reduce this to 62.7%.
• The combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly expand the economy, with the GDP projected to reach $449.8 billion USD by 2043, a 73.1% increase over the base trajectory's $259.8 billion USD.
• The combined scenario would shift the economic structure by increasing the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP by 7.5 percentage points by 2043, adding $53.7 billion USD. Conversely, the energy sector's contribution to GDP would decrease from 2.6% (base case) to 2.1% in the combined scenario.
• The informal sector in the DRC is among the largest globally, estimated at 41.8% of GDP in 2022. The combined Agenda 2063 scenario would reduce the informal sector's share of GDP to 23.4% by 2043, compared to 33.5% in the base case.
• The combined scenario would reduce the Gini coefficient (inequality) to 0.32 by 2043, a 17.2% reduction from the 2022 level of 0.42, whereas the base trajectory only predicts a decrease to 0.41.
• Economic growth under the combined scenario comes with a higher environmental cost; carbon emissions are projected to increase by 950% from 2022 to 2043 (reaching 25 million tonnes), compared to an 800% increase in the base case.
• Energy production is projected to increase to 321 million barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) by 2043 under the combined scenario. Renewable energy's contribution to production would rise to 66.9% in the combined scenario, compared to 56.8% in the base case.

APA

Chipanda, B., & Yeboua, K. (2024). RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc-french&topic=04-comparison

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing, and Kouassi Yeboua. RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc-french&topic=04-comparison.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |last2=Yeboua |first2=Kouassi |title=RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=16 May 2024 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc-french&topic=04-comparison |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2024congo, author = {Chipanda, Blessing and Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc-french&topic=04-comparison}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }