RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a scenario-based economic and social forecast for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) up to 2043. It compares a 'base trajectory' (current path) against various sectoral interventions and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario, analyzing impacts on GDP per capita, extreme poverty, the informal economy, life expectancy, inequality, carbon emissions, and energy production.

• The 'Agenda 2063' combined scenario, which integrates all sectoral interventions, is projected to significantly expand the DRC's economy by 2043, increasing the GDP to 449.8 billion US dollars compared to 259.8 billion US dollars under the current trajectory, representing a 73.1% increase.
• The DRC is not on track to meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030; under the current trajectory, 65.7% of the population (approximately 84.1 million people) will live in extreme poverty by 2030. The combined Agenda 2063 scenario would reduce this to 62.7%.
• Different sectoral scenarios impact GDP per capita differently by 2043: Industrialization/Manufacturing is expected to have the highest impact (increasing GDP per capita by 283 US dollars), followed by governance (207 dollars) and the AfCFTA (176 dollars). Financial flows are expected to have the lowest impact (60 dollars).
• The DRC has one of the highest rates of economic informality globally; in 2022, the informal sector was estimated at 41.8% of GDP, the highest among low-income African countries and third in Africa overall, behind Zimbabwe (54.5%) and Tanzania (45.6%). Under the Agenda 2063 scenario, this is projected to drop to 23.4% by 2043.
• Life expectancy in the DRC improved from an average of 41.1 years in 1960 to 62.5 years in 2022. By 2043, it is projected to reach 68.1 years on the current trajectory or 69.7 years under the Agenda 2063 scenario.
• Inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, was 0.42 in 2022. While the current trajectory predicts a slight decrease to 0.41 by 2043, the combined scenario would reduce the coefficient by 17.2% to 0.32.
• Economic growth under the Agenda 2063 scenario would lead to higher carbon emissions, rising from approximately 2 million tonnes in 2022 to 25 million tonnes in 2043 (a 950% increase), which is 5 million tonnes more than the base trajectory projection.
• The DRC relies on imported hydrocarbons for energy. Energy production was approximately 64 million barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) in 2022. By 2043, the Agenda 2063 scenario projects production to reach 321 million BBOE, with renewables contributing 66.9% compared to 56.8% on the current trajectory.

APA

Chipanda, B., & Yeboua, K. (2024). RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc-french&topic=04-comparison

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing, and Kouassi Yeboua. RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc-french&topic=04-comparison.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |last2=Yeboua |first2=Kouassi |title=RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=16 May 2024 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc-french&topic=04-comparison |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2024congo, author = {Chipanda, Blessing and Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{RD Congo: SPECIAL REPORT}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc-french&topic=04-comparison}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }