AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES

This report outlines the 'Combined scenario' for Africa's economic structural transformation toward 2043, focusing on the shift from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. It details the projected roles of manufacturing, services, agriculture, and ICT, while emphasizing the necessity of urban resilience and regional trade integration via AfCFTA to achieve a diversified, knowledge-based economy.

• The Combined scenario projects a gradual transition toward a diversified, knowledge-based economy by 2043. While the services sector remains the largest, growing from 53% of GDP in 2023 to 56% in 2043, manufacturing is expected to gain ground and reverse 'premature deindustrialisation' through targeted policies supporting technology adoption and export competitiveness.
• Agriculture's share of GDP is projected to decline from 14% to 7% by 2043. This shift does not indicate a collapse but rather an increase in productivity and commercialization driven by investments in irrigation, rural infrastructure, and smallholder farming, allowing the sector to integrate into regional value chains.
• Urbanization is identified as a catalyst for growth, with Africa's urban population projected to increase from 44% in 2023 to over 55% by 2043. However, the report warns that without investment in urban resilience and infrastructure, cities risk becoming 'poverty traps' and can lead to productivity losses through sprawl.
• The report highlights specific national examples of structural transformation: Morocco's automotive industry now leads its exports; Kenya's ICT and digital finance sectors are expanding regional value chains; Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are increasing value through local cocoa processing; and South Africa and Namibia are targeting green hydrogen and battery mineral chains.
• Structural transformation is expected to shift Africa's trade profile from raw commodity exports to a balance of manufactured goods, processed agricultural products, and services. This transition is supported by deeper regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=05-shifting-economic-structure

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=05-shifting-economic-structure.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=05-shifting-economic-structure |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=05-shifting-economic-structure}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }