AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES

The document outlines a projected economic transition for Africa by 2043, moving from raw commodity exports to a more balanced profile of manufactured goods and services. It emphasizes the role of urbanisation as a catalyst for growth, provided it is supported by resilient infrastructure. The 'Combined scenario' predicts a strategic rebalancing where manufacturing gains GDP share and agriculture becomes more commercialised and productive, despite a declining share of total GDP. Key enablers include ICT, renewable energy investment, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

• The 'Combined scenario' projects a structural shift in Africa's economy by 2043, where the services sector remains the largest, increasing from 53% of GDP in 2023 to 56%, while manufacturing increases its share of GDP to reverse 'premature deindustrialisation'.
• Agriculture's share of GDP is expected to drop from 14% to 7% by 2043, though this is attributed to increased productivity and commercialisation rather than sector collapse.
• Urbanisation is identified as a growth catalyst, with Africa's urban population projected to rise from 44% in 2023 to over 55% by 2043, though unplanned growth can create 'poverty traps' and increase infrastructure costs.
• The report highlights specific national examples of structural transformation: Morocco's automotive industry, Kenya's ICT and digital finance, cocoa processing in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, and green hydrogen/battery mineral value chains in Namibia and South Africa.
• Regional trade integration via the AfCFTA is expected to enable the development of regional value chains, shifting Africa from a raw commodity exporter to a producer of manufactured goods and processed agricultural products.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=05-shifting-economic-structure

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=05-shifting-economic-structure.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=05-shifting-economic-structure |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=05-shifting-economic-structure}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }