Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and LNG flows. Japan, South Korea, India, and China are the most exposed, collectively accounting for 75% of oil and 59% of LNG flows through the route. Japan is identified as the most at-risk country due to its extreme reliance on imported fossil fuels. A blockade could trigger global price surges, potentially pushing oil to USD 130 or even USD 300 per barrel. The document suggests that transitioning to renewables and electrification, as seen in Europe's response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, is essential to mitigate these geopolitical risks.

• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy chokepoint, with approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) passing through shipping lanes that are only two miles wide in each direction.
• Four Asian nations—China, India, Japan, and South Korea—are the most exposed to disruptions in the Strait, representing 75% of oil and 59% of LNG flows. Among these, Japan is the most vulnerable, followed by South Korea, India, and China.
• Japan and South Korea exhibit high vulnerability to supply shocks because they source 87% and 81% of their total energy from imported fossil fuels, respectively.
• A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cause global oil prices to surge to USD 130 per barrel, matching the 2007-2008 record high, while some officials suggest prices could reach USD 300 per barrel.
• A one-year closure of the Strait would lead to a 15% decrease in global LNG supply relative to 2024 levels, potentially causing LNG prices in Japan to increase by approximately 170%.
• European countries demonstrated the ability to rapidly reduce fossil fuel dependence following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reducing gas imports by 18% between 2022 and 2024.
• Japan's 7th Strategic Energy Plan (February 2025) aims to increase renewable energy from 23% in 2023 to up to 50% by 2040, though it would still rely on fossil fuel imports for 30-40% of electricity generation by that date.

APA

Hedley, N. (2026). Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/asian-countries-most-at-risk-from-oil-and-gas-supply-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz/

Chicago

Hedley, Nick. Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/asian-countries-most-at-risk-from-oil-and-gas-supply-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hedley |first1=Nick |title=Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=26 February 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/asian-countries-most-at-risk-from-oil-and-gas-supply-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hedley2026asian, author = {Hedley, Nick}, title = {{Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/asian-countries-most-at-risk-from-oil-and-gas-supply-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }