Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the vulnerability of Asian nations to energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. It identifies Japan as the country at the highest direct risk due to its extreme reliance on imported fossil fuels and the high volume of its trade passing through the chokepoint. The document argues that transitioning to renewable energy and electrification is the primary strategic path to enhancing energy security and reducing exposure to global price shocks.

• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil flows. It serves as the primary export route for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran, and is the sole route for LNG exports from the UAE and Qatar.
• Asian markets are the most exposed to disruptions in the Strait, with 84% of oil and 83% of LNG shipped through the route in 2024 destined for Asia. Specifically, China, India, Japan, and South Korea together account for 59% of LNG and 75% of oil flows.
• Japan is identified as the country facing the most direct risk of supply disruption, with a risk score of 6.4. South Korea (5.3), India (4.9), and China (4.4) follow in order of vulnerability. Japan's high risk is driven by the fact that 87% of its total energy usage is sourced from imported fossil fuels.
• A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cause global oil prices to surge to historic levels. Estimates vary, with JPMorgan suggesting prices could reach USD 130 per barrel (matching the 2007-2008 peak), while Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister has warned they could reach USD 200-300 per barrel.
• A one-year closure of the Strait would likely result in a 15% decrease in global LNG supply relative to 2024 levels. This could cause LNG prices in Japan to increase by approximately 170%.
• The document highlights that transitioning to renewables and electrification reduces geopolitical risk. For example, Europe reduced its gas imports by 13% (from 361.5 bcm in 2021 to 313.5 bcm in 2025) following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• Japan's energy security is hindered by its continued reliance on fossil fuels following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, with fossil fuels making up 68.8% of its grid in 2024. While the 7th Strategic Energy Plan aims for renewables to reach up to 50% by 2040, the country would still depend on fossil fuel imports for 30-40% of electricity generation.

APA

Hedley, N. (2026). Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/asian-countries-most-at-risk-from-oil-and-gas-supply-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz/

Chicago

Hedley, Nick. Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/asian-countries-most-at-risk-from-oil-and-gas-supply-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hedley |first1=Nick |title=Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=26 February 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/asian-countries-most-at-risk-from-oil-and-gas-supply-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hedley2026asian, author = {Hedley, Nick}, title = {{Asian countries most at risk from oil and gas supply disruptions in Strait of Hormuz}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/asian-countries-most-at-risk-from-oil-and-gas-supply-disruptions-in-strait-of-hormuz/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }