Africa First!

The document argues that Africa is experiencing a growing economic divergence from the rest of the world, with GDP per capita projected to be less than one quarter of the global average by 2040. While human well-being indicators like life expectancy have improved, the continent's growth is constrained by an unproductive economic structure dominated by low-end informal services and a slow demographic transition. To ignite a 'growth revolution', the author advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach focusing on basic infrastructure, reducing fertility rates, and transitioning toward manufacturing and productive agriculture. The brief emphasizes that leveraging the fourth industrial revolution, renewable energy, and the African Continental Free Trade Area, alongside accountable leadership, is essential to reversing commodity dependence and achieving sustainable prosperity.

• Africa is seeing a widening economic gap compared to the rest of the world; while GDP per capita was about half the global average in 1960, it is projected to be less than one quarter by 2040.
• Despite a projected economic increase of over 130% and average growth of 4.3% between 2020 and 2040, Africa's average income will only rise by 30% due to a population increase of 82%.
• The continent's slow development is attributed to an unproductive economic structure where low-end services in the informal economy dominate, unlike in developed countries where the services sector enhances productivity.
• Demographic factors are a primary constraint on productivity; the ratio of working-age persons to dependents only improves when fertility rates drop below 2.8 children per woman, a threshold Africa is not expected to reach until after 2050.
• Agriculture and manufacturing are underperforming; Africa is a net food importer with an annual agricultural trade deficit near US$100 billion, and its manufacturing sector peaked around 1988 at below 15% of GDP.
• A lack of basic infrastructure, such as potable water and sanitation, has increased vulnerability to climate change and hindered the mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• To achieve a growth revolution, Africa must prioritize 'fixing the basics'—including primary education, literacy, and basic infrastructure—before investing in large industrial projects.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Africa First! Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief146.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa First! Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief146.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa First! |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief146.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa First!}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief146.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }