Africa First!

This policy brief summarises the book 'Africa First!' by Jakkie Cilliers, which analyses Africa's current development trajectory and proposes a roadmap to 2040. It argues that while human well-being indicators are improving, Africa is diverging further from the rest of the world in terms of average income and economic productivity due to an unproductive economic structure, slow demographic transition, and a lack of basic infrastructure.

• Africa is experiencing a divergence from the rest of the world in economic terms. While GDP per capita was about half the global average in 1960, it is projected to be less than one quarter by 2040. Despite a projected average economic growth of 4.3% from 2020 to 2040 and an overall economy increase of more than 130%, average income is only expected to rise by 30%, compared to an almost 150% increase for the rest of the world.
• The continent's slow development is attributed to an unproductive economic structure dominated by low-end services in the informal economy. Manufacturing, which is six times more productive than agriculture, has declined as a portion of the total economy since peaking around 1988 at below 15% of GDP, leaving Africa dependent on commodity exports.
• Demographics are a primary constraint on productivity. Africa's development is hindered by a slow transition to a structure with more working-age people relative to dependents. The ratio of working-age persons to dependents only increases once fertility rates drop below 2.8 children per woman, a favourable ratio Africa is not expected to achieve until after 2050.
• Agriculture suffers from low yields and a lack of government attention to small and medium scale farming. This has resulted in a net agricultural trade deficit of nearly US$100 billion annually, which is projected to quadruple by 2030.
• A lack of basic infrastructure, including potable water, sanitation, electricity, and paved roads, severely limits economic growth and public health. The absence of these basics has specifically constrained the mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• To ignite a growth revolution by 2040, Africa must focus on 'bottom up' basics, including primary education, literacy, and basic infrastructure. Key drivers for improvement include the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, leveraging the fourth industrial revolution and renewable energy, and establishing accountable leadership that respects constitutional term limits.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Africa First! Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief146.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa First! Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief146.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa First! |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief146.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa First!}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief146.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }