Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency

The re-election of Donald Trump may slow US clean technology deployment through the potential repeal of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds and EV tax credits, potentially shifting leadership to emerging economies. The global market for six key technologies—solar PV, wind turbines, EVs, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps—is projected to exceed USD 2 trillion by 2035, with global trade reaching USD 575 billion. China currently leads with 70% of the market for these technologies, though it faces risks from proposed US tariffs of 60% on all imports and 100% on EVs. Other nations may benefit: India could become a net exporter of clean technologies by 2035 with annual exports of USD 30 billion, and Brazil is well-positioned in wind turbine blade production, currently accounting for 5% of the global market. In the Global South, renewable energy potential is 400 times greater than fossil fuel production, and solar is expected to have lower upfront costs than coal in Vietnam from 2024 and in India from approximately 2027.

• The global market for six primary clean technologies—solar PV, wind turbines, EVs, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps—is expected to grow to over USD 2 trillion by 2035, representing a 186% increase from 2023 levels. Global trade in these technologies is forecasted to reach USD 575 billion by 2035, which is approximately 50% higher than current global trade in natural gas.
• China currently dominates the clean tech sector, holding 70% of the market for six key technologies, with exports projected to exceed USD 340 billion by 2035. While a US retreat from clean tech leadership could benefit China, proposed Trump administration tariffs—60% on all Chinese imports and 100% on EVs—could reduce China's GDP by 0.68%.
• Emerging economies like India and Brazil are positioned to capture market share if the US slows its clean tech deployment. India could transition from a net importer to a net exporter of clean technologies by 2035, with exports valued at USD 30 billion annually. Brazil currently produces 5% of the world's wind turbine blades.
• The Global South possesses a renewable energy potential 400 times greater than its fossil fuel production. In certain markets, renewables are becoming more cost-effective than coal; specifically, solar is expected to have lower upfront costs than coal in Vietnam starting in 2024 and in India from around 2027.
• The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has attracted over USD 200 billion in investment, with foreign investors—particularly from Japan and Korea—accounting for over 45% of clean energy manufacturing investment announcements (approximately USD 58 billion). These investments are at risk if IRA benefits are rescinded.

APA

Team, Z. (2024). Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/clean-tech-opportunities-for-emerging-economies-under-a-trump-presidency/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2024. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/clean-tech-opportunities-for-emerging-economies-under-a-trump-presidency/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=6 November 2024 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/clean-tech-opportunities-for-emerging-economies-under-a-trump-presidency/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2024clean, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/clean-tech-opportunities-for-emerging-economies-under-a-trump-presidency/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }