Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines how a potential US slowdown in clean technology investment and deployment under a Donald Trump presidency could create market opportunities for emerging economies, specifically China, Brazil, and India.

• The global market for six primary clean technologies—solar PV, wind turbines, EVs, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps—is projected to exceed USD 2 trillion by 2035, representing a 186% increase from 2023. Global trade in these technologies is expected to reach USD 575 billion by 2035, which is approximately 50% higher than the current value of global natural gas trade.
• China currently leads the clean tech manufacturing market with a 70% share of the six key technologies, and its exports are projected to surpass USD 340 billion by 2035. While a Trump presidency could allow China to capture more market share from the US, it also faces risks from proposed tariffs, including a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and 100% on EVs, which could reduce China's GDP by 0.68%.
• Emerging economies in the Global South have a renewable energy potential 400 times greater than their fossil fuel production. Many of these countries already have higher shares of solar and wind in their electricity generation than the US, and in 2023, solar and wind accounted for 83% of electricity demand growth in the Global South.
• India and Brazil are positioned to benefit from a US withdrawal from clean tech leadership. India could transition from a net importer to a net exporter of clean technologies by 2035, with annual exports potentially reaching USD 30 billion. Brazil currently produces 5% of global wind turbine blades and possesses favorable conditions for wind turbine manufacturing.
• The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has attracted over USD 200 billion in investment, with foreign investors accounting for over 45% of manufacturing investment announcements (approximately USD 58 billion). If IRA benefits are removed, these investments—including significant contributions from Japanese and Korean companies in batteries and EVs—could be redirected toward emerging economies.

APA

Team, Z. (2024). Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/clean-tech-opportunities-for-emerging-economies-under-a-trump-presidency/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2024. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/clean-tech-opportunities-for-emerging-economies-under-a-trump-presidency/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=6 November 2024 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/clean-tech-opportunities-for-emerging-economies-under-a-trump-presidency/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2024clean, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Clean tech opportunities for emerging economies under a Trump presidency}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/clean-tech-opportunities-for-emerging-economies-under-a-trump-presidency/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }