The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This conclusion to a special report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the structural and regulatory barriers hindering Tunisia's economic growth and proposes a series of comprehensive reforms across governance, labor, education, and resource management to achieve inclusive development by 2040.

• Tunisia's economic growth is stagnated by a combination of an opaque political system, an insider/outsider economic structure, and a highly protective regulatory environment. These factors, along with the dominance of state-owned enterprises, corrupt customs, and problematic labor rules, contribute to high unemployment—particularly among university graduates—and persistent regional inequalities.
• A significant portion of the domestic market—nearly one-third of traded goods—is imported illegally due to poorly designed regulations and high import taxes. This large shadow economy, characterized by rampant smuggling in southern border towns like Ben Guerdane, is linked to regional instability.
• To unlock human capital and attract foreign direct investment (FDI), Tunisia must implement reforms to improve business regulation, increase economic freedom, reduce corruption, and end distortions caused by energy and other subsidies. The report suggests transitioning from the current subsidy system to a targeted social safety net for the poor and vulnerable.
• The report identifies critical needs in social and environmental sectors: formulating a labor policy to address gender bias and inequality, improving the quality and relevance of the education pipeline, and implementing efficient water use to mitigate the impacts of climate change and water stress.
• Tunisia has the potential to increase agricultural productivity and food security by strengthening institutional infrastructure, specifically regarding transport systems, access to finance, and land ownership.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=14-conclusion

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=14-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=14-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=14-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }