Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism

The document examines how COVID-19 exposes weaknesses in global institutions and threatens Africa through economic shocks, reduced development aid, and a retreat from multilateralism. It highlights the risk of increased trade protectionism and the potential for climate goals to be sidelined. The author advocates for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the creation of a continental climate finance fund, and a proactive African role in reforming global governance to mitigate these risks.

• The COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to cost Africa approximately $100 billion, which represents 5% of its gross domestic product. This economic hit is driven by global slowdowns affecting key exports, such as minerals to China and flowers from Kenya to Europe, as well as disruptions in Chinese manufacturing affecting domestic consumer spending.
• The pandemic may accelerate the decline of the liberal international order and multilateralism, leaving smaller and more exposed countries like those in Africa more vulnerable. The author suggests that while the US is retreating from its role as the system's underwriter, China is not yet ready to replace it, potentially leading to a world where 'the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must'.
• Global trade is threatened by increased protectionism and the potential repatriation of supply chains. This occurs as Africa attempts to launch the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which has faced delays due to the pandemic. The author argues that the AfCFTA is essential for Africa to break its cycle of external economic dependency.
• Development cooperation and aid from the North are expected to wither as economic recessions hit Europe and the US. This threatens the financing of Agenda 2030 and Africa's Agenda 2063, making the goals of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) potentially eroded.
• There is a risk that the Paris Agreement and climate goals will be sidelined as leaders prioritize economic recovery over the transition from fossil fuels. African countries, which rely on the Green Climate Change Fund, may face reduced external support, leading the author to suggest that African governments establish their own climate finance fund.
• The pandemic has reinforced anti-migration narratives in the North, which could restrict human mobility and reduce remittances—a significant revenue source for some African economies. Furthermore, draconian mobility measures may exacerbate conflicts linked to violent extremism in the Horn, North Africa, and the Sahel.
• In response to the crisis, African leaders established the Africa Coronavirus Fund, raising $20 million in 30 minutes. President Cyril Ramaphosa has called on the G20 to waive interest payments on bilateral and multilateral loans, noting that one-third of sub-Saharan African countries are debt-distressed or at risk.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2020). Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism. https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-after-covid-19-and-the-retreat-of-globalism/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism. 2020. https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-after-covid-19-and-the-retreat-of-globalism/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism |date=31 March 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-after-covid-19-and-the-retreat-of-globalism/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2020africa, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-after-covid-19-and-the-retreat-of-globalism/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }