Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism

This research paper examines the immediate and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Africa, arguing that the crisis accelerates the decline of the liberal international order and increases the vulnerability of smaller nations. The author outlines five key long-term risks—the unravelling of multilateralism, increased trade protectionism, the decline of development cooperation, a potential retreat from climate goals, and restricted human mobility—and proposes a coordinated African response focused on regional integration and proactive global governance reform.

• The COVID-19 pandemic is viewed as a catalyst for the decline of the liberal international order and the weakening of global rules, which increases risks for smaller, less powerful countries. This shift may lead to a world of 'self-sufficient economies' where states become more mercantilist and international institutions atrophy.
• Immediate economic impacts for Africa include an estimated cost of $100 billion, representing 5% of its gross domestic product. The continent faces severe disruptions due to global economic slowdowns in main export destinations, such as Europe for Kenyan flowers and China for minerals, as well as shortages of domestic consumer goods caused by the shutdown of Chinese manufacturing.
• The pandemic threatens the launch and success of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which was originally scheduled for July 1. While the start date will be delayed, the author argues that the rise of global protectionism makes the AfCFTA more essential for breaking Africa's cycle of external economic dependency.
• Development cooperation is expected to wither as economic recessions in the US and Europe impact aid flows and priorities. This jeopardizes the financing of Agenda 2030 and Africa's Agenda 2063, as private sector funding becomes 'virtually impossible' and the global economy is estimated to contract by 1.5% in 2020.
• There is a risk that the Paris Agreement and climate goals will be casualties of the pandemic, as global recessions and low oil prices (below $30 per barrel) may lead leaders to delay the transition from fossil fuels. This could impact African countries that rely on the Green Climate Change Fund for adaptation and mitigation.
• The pandemic may accelerate Africa's pivot toward China due to China's public diplomacy offensive, such as the donation of 1.1 million testing kits, 6 million masks, and 60,000 protective suits by Alibaba founder Jack Ma, contrasted with the West's inward focus on domestic outbreaks.
• To mitigate the crisis, African leaders have established the Africa Coronavirus Fund, raising approximately $20 million in 30 minutes during a March 26 meeting. President Cyril Ramaphosa has called for the G20 and international institutions to waive all interest payments on bilateral and multilateral loans, noting that one-third of sub-Saharan African countries are debt-distressed or at risk.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2020). Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism. https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-after-covid-19-and-the-retreat-of-globalism/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism. 2020. https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-after-covid-19-and-the-retreat-of-globalism/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism |date=31 March 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-after-covid-19-and-the-retreat-of-globalism/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2020africa, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Africa after COVID-19 and the retreat of globalism}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-after-covid-19-and-the-retreat-of-globalism/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }