The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The report evaluates three development scenarios for Tunisia—'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'—against a baseline 'Current Path' for 2040. All three scenarios are projected to increase GDP and reduce extreme poverty, with 'Going for Growth' offering the highest GDP boost (30%) and 'Sustainability & Equality' providing the most significant reductions in extreme poverty, inequality, and carbon emissions. However, the report highlights critical trade-offs: 'Going for Growth' and 'Leapfrogging' are expected to increase carbon emissions and leave the country vulnerable to international food price shocks, while all scenarios must contend with increasing industrial, municipal, and agricultural water demand in a water-stressed environment.

• All three development scenarios increase GDP by 2040 compared to the Current Path, with the 'Going for Growth' scenario providing the largest increase of 30% (€27 billion), followed by 'Sustainability & Equality' at 14% (€13 billion) and 'Leapfrogging' at 11% (€10 billion).
• The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario is the most effective at reducing extreme poverty (defined by a US$3.20 threshold), leaving only about 2.8% of the population in extreme poverty by 2040, compared to 6.6% under the Current Path.
• The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario is the only pathway that significantly reduces food imports and carbon emissions, with the latter decreasing by almost 8% relative to the Current Path by 2040.
• The 'Going for Growth' and 'Leapfrogging' scenarios are projected to increase carbon emissions by over 16% and 4% respectively by 2040 relative to the Current Path.
• Regardless of the chosen scenario, Tunisia faces a policy challenge regarding increasing water demand for agricultural, municipal, and industrial use while already experiencing water stress.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }