The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This report compares three potential development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—against a 'Current Path' baseline. It evaluates their impacts on GDP, poverty, inequality, food security, and carbon emissions, highlighting that while all scenarios improve economic outcomes, they present different trade-offs regarding environmental sustainability and food independence.

• All three development scenarios are projected to increase GDP by 2040 compared to the Current Path, with the 'Going for Growth' scenario providing the largest boost of 30% (€27 billion). The 'Sustainability & Equality' and 'Leapfrogging' scenarios are projected to increase GDP by 14% (€13 billion) and 11% (€10 billion), respectively. Improving governance indicators is identified as a particularly powerful driver of this growth.
• The scenarios significantly reduce extreme poverty (defined by a US$3.20 threshold) by 2040 compared to the Current Path, which would leave nearly 7 million Tunisians in extreme poverty. The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario is the most effective, reducing extreme poverty to approximately 2.8%, followed by 'Going for Growth' at nearly 3% and 'Leapfrogging' at about 4%. In all three scenarios, the percentage of people living below the national poverty line (US$2.60 per day) drops to under 1%.
• The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario provides the greatest reduction in inequality, lowering the Gini index by approximately 8.4% relative to the Current Path by 2040. The 'Going for Growth' and 'Leapfrogging' scenarios achieve reductions of 7.7% and 5.8%, respectively. The report notes these figures likely understate the actual impact because the IFs system does not fully account for increased formal sector employment.
• The scenarios present distinct trade-offs regarding food security and the environment. Only the 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario significantly reduces food imports and lowers carbon emissions by almost 8% relative to the Current Path by 2040. Conversely, the 'Going for Growth' and 'Leapfrogging' scenarios increase carbon emissions by over 16% and 4%, respectively, and leave the country vulnerable to international food price shocks.
• Regardless of the chosen scenario, Tunisia faces ongoing challenges with water stress, as all three pathways will affect industrial, municipal, and agricultural water demand by 2040.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=13-comparing-scenario-impacts}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }