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The report analyzes Africa's high level of commodity dependence, noting that commodity exports constituted 90% by value of all merchandise exports in 2021. It argues that this dependence often leads to the 'resource curse,' characterized by poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. While some countries like Botswana have attempted to manage resources through sovereign wealth funds, many others face volatility and 'Dutch disease.' The text also highlights how the global energy transition is shifting demand toward minerals like cobalt and lithium, and how climate change is exacerbating vulnerability by reducing agricultural yields in regions such as the Sahel.

The report argues that Africa's health and WaSH sectors require a shift from donor dependency to domestic investment and institutional reform. It emphasizes the role of the Africa CDC in health sovereignty and the goal of producing 60% of vaccines locally by 2040. The document advocates for tailored strategies based on a typology of state capacities and the adoption of decentralized, solar-powered WaSH solutions to improve outcomes across the continent.

The report examines the critical intersection of health and WaSH services in Africa, highlighting how underinvestment, colonial legacies, and external dependencies undermine human development. It details severe infrastructure gaps, such as the lack of safely managed water for 959 million people, and warns that the closure of USAID in 2025 could result in 1.8 to 2.5 million additional deaths annually through 2030. The document argues that these systems are foundational for economic productivity and resilience against climate-related disasters, but current trajectories are insufficient to meet 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

The report examines the evolution of governance in the Global South, tracing the impact of colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes. It analyzes current governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, noting a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity in some regions, while others show improved state capacity despite limited democratic freedoms.

The document outlines a projected economic transition for Africa by 2043, moving from raw commodity exports to a more balanced profile of manufactured goods and services. It emphasizes the role of urbanisation as a catalyst for growth, provided it is supported by resilient infrastructure. The 'Combined scenario' predicts a strategic rebalancing where manufacturing gains GDP share and agriculture becomes more commercialised and productive, despite a declining share of total GDP. Key enablers include ICT, renewable energy investment, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

The research design for 'State Futures in the Global South' integrates the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), expert workshops, horizon scanning, and a four-scenario framework to analyze governance outcomes. The methodology involves benchmarking governance performance across six dimensions and incorporating regional perspectives from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia to validate scenario assumptions and identify emerging risks.

The document examines the diverse nature of Africa's manufacturing sector, noting that most countries remain outliers with low manufacturing shares of GDP. It highlights a trend of 'premature deindustrialization' in low-income countries and the significant role of Chinese private enterprises in meeting domestic demand. While most of the continent relies on raw material exports, a few countries like Eswatini and South Africa show higher industrial competitiveness.

The report details the disproportionate burden of climate change on Africa, noting that since 1984, the continent has faced 1,865 climate-related disasters resulting in US$53 billion in losses. It highlights a critical lack of financial protection, with only 9% of disaster losses insured. Regional analysis shows water-related disasters as the primary threat, with severe flooding in East Africa and historic droughts in Southern Africa and the Horn of Africa. The document also links climate change to the spread of diseases like cholera and malaria, and the risk of desertification in the Sahel and West Africa.

The document concludes that Africa is positioned for a manufacturing surge if it can overcome structural bottlenecks through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), infrastructure investment, and smart industrial policy. It contrasts a 'Current Path' with a 'Manufacturing scenario' where, by 2043, the continent achieves higher GDP and employment by transitioning from a raw material exporter to a producer of value-added goods like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electric vehicles.

The research paper projects that a 'Combined scenario'—integrating policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment—would significantly increase Africa's GDP to US$8.9 trillion by 2043 and reduce extreme poverty to 242 million people. It highlights that while low-income countries like the DR Congo and Mozambique would see the fastest growth, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance reforms are the most effective drivers of per capita income and poverty reduction across the continent.

The report identifies high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and a lack of regional value chains as primary obstacles to Africa's economic growth. It highlights a disconnect between Africa's focus on individual national economies and the global shift toward regional value chains, while noting that current global trends—including a move away from long transport routes to reduce carbon emissions and geopolitical shifts—could potentially benefit Africa's growing consumer base.

The report identifies a complex web of barriers to industrialisation in Africa, including colonial legacies of extractive industries, chronic infrastructure deficits in power and transport, and a lack of skilled technical labour. It highlights how policy inconsistencies and limited access to affordable long-term finance have hindered growth, while noting that global competition from Asia and the rise of automation challenge the traditional low-wage labour advantage. However, it points to opportunities arising from 'China+1' diversification strategies and the potential of the AfCFTA to reduce internal trade costs.

The report details a strategic scenario for Africa to improve health and demographic outcomes by 2050. Key interventions include increasing modern contraceptive use to 75% in sub-Saharan Africa and 85% in North Africa, reducing mortality for the top five disease types by 20 percentage points, and expanding safely managed water and sanitation access. The scenario also targets a 20% reduction in under-five stunting in 39 countries. These improvements require an additional US$18.9 billion in health spending continentwide, with infrastructure spending peaking at US$4.7 billion per annum in 2037. The model is based on empirical benchmarks from countries like Ethiopia, Malawi, Ghana, and Kenya, and mirrors historical progress in South America and South Asia.

The document argues that Africa's health and WaSH trajectory is a global public good, where improvements could provide a demographic dividend for the global economy, while failures could amplify global pandemic risks and drive migration. It highlights the role of digital innovation, local manufacturing, and regional leadership in shaping global health intelligence and governance.

The document outlines the challenges of industrialisation in Africa, including rising income inequality, fiscal strain from upfront capital investments, and environmental degradation. It emphasizes the need for social safety nets, green infrastructure, and strategic navigation of global trade rules to mitigate these costs, arguing that the cost of inaction—continued poverty and import dependence—is higher than the costs of transition.

The report analyzes how GDP composition shifts from agriculture to services and manufacturing as countries grow wealthier. It highlights that while Africa's economic structure mirrors India's service-led growth, it lacks the broad industrial base seen in China's manufacturing-led strategy. The text notes that Africa's growth has been hindered by a reliance on extractive industries and a delayed demographic window of opportunity, expected around 2051.

Non-tariff barriers, including regulatory procedures, corruption, and technical standards, significantly constrain African trade. While reforms like the One-Stop Border Framework at the Beitbridge border post and East African Community initiatives have drastically reduced processing times, overall progress in eliminating these barriers remains slow due to entrenched local practices and vested interests.

The report argues that Africa requires an agricultural revolution through AgTech and improved soil fertility to avoid food insecurity, as per capita production is projected to decline by 2043 despite overall increases. It highlights the role of mobile connectivity in providing credit, insurance, and equipment sharing, while noting that rural electricity and internet gaps remain major barriers. The document also details the critical need for affordable fertilisers, contrasting Africa's low usage (22 kg/ha) with the global average (146 kg/ha), and discusses regional initiatives like the AU's 10-year Fertilizer and Soil Health Action Plan to triple fertiliser use by 2033.

The report analyzes Africa's economic growth drivers, arguing that while labour-fueled growth is unlikely to emulate other regions due to a late demographic dividend, future growth must rely on physical capital accumulation and multifactor productivity (MFP). It highlights that for low- and lower-middle-income African countries, poor physical capital is the primary drag on growth, whereas upper-middle-income countries are constrained by poor human capital.

The research paper examines the role of Africa's natural carbon sinks, particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel, and evaluates the potential for a global carbon tax to fund the continent's energy transition and conservation efforts. It analyzes various carbon pricing scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment model aligns best with the Paris Agreement's principles of fairness and historical responsibility.