AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

The document concludes that Africa is positioned for a manufacturing surge if it can overcome structural bottlenecks through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), infrastructure investment, and smart industrial policy. It contrasts a 'Current Path' with a 'Manufacturing scenario' where, by 2043, the continent achieves higher GDP and employment by transitioning from a raw material exporter to a producer of value-added goods like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electric vehicles.

• The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is described as a 'game changer' that provides the necessary scale and integration for African industries to become globally competitive.
• A 'Manufacturing scenario' modelled for 2043 suggests that the right interventions could lead to substantially higher GDP, employment, and human development outcomes compared to the 'Current Path', potentially resulting in millions of new jobs and lower poverty.
• Several major African economies are already demonstrating a commitment to manufacturing: Nigeria is focusing on using local lithium for EV batteries, while South Africa is working to resolve energy issues to support its industries.
• Foreign investment in African manufacturing is increasing due to rising production costs elsewhere and the growth of Africa's market, with significant partners including China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, India, Europe, and the US.
• To achieve industrial growth, the report recommends aggressive investment in hard infrastructure, specifically prioritising renewable energy for power generation and distribution, and developing transport corridors to connect production hubs to markets.
• The report advocates for 'smart industrial policy' where countries identify priority value chains based on comparative advantages and avoid spreading resources too thinly, while promoting the formation of industrial clusters.
• Industrialisation must be inclusive and sustainable, requiring the integration of SMEs into value chains, the enforcement of labour standards to avoid a 'race to the bottom' on wages, and the adoption of clean technologies from the start.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=10-conclusion

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=10-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=10-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=10-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }