AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

This report conclusion outlines a strategic vision for Africa's industrialisation by 2043, arguing that a shift from exporting raw materials to manufacturing value-added goods can drive significant GDP growth, employment, and poverty reduction. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and diversifying foreign direct investment as key catalysts for this transformation.

• The report posits that industrialisation is a critical driver for development that can protect Africa from commodity boom-and-bust cycles and jobless growth. By 2043, a successful manufacturing scenario could result in a significantly larger economy, millions of new jobs, and lower poverty levels compared to the 'Current Path' trajectory.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is described as a 'game changer' that provides the necessary scale and integration for African industries to become globally competitive by removing trade barriers and standardising regulations.
• Several major African economies are demonstrating a renewed commitment to manufacturing through specific national initiatives, such as Nigeria's focus on using local lithium for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and South Africa's efforts to resolve energy constraints to support industry.
• Foreign investment in African manufacturing is increasing as production costs rise in other regions. Key investing partners include China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, India, Europe, and the US.
• To achieve the 2043 manufacturing vision, the report recommends aggressive investment in hard infrastructure, specifically prioritizing renewable energy for power generation and the development of transport corridors (roads, railways, and ports) to reduce costs.
• The report advocates for 'smart industrial policy' where countries identify priority value chains based on comparative advantage and avoid spreading resources too thinly. It suggests that by 2043, specific regions could export value-added goods such as electronics from Egypt, pharmaceuticals from East Africa, and machinery from South Africa.
• Sustainable industrialisation requires integrating small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) into value chains, upholding labour standards to avoid a 'race to the bottom' on wages, and enforcing pollution regulations to ensure a transition to green industry.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=10-conclusion

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=10-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=10-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=10-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }