African Responses to Climate Change

The research paper examines the role of Africa's natural carbon sinks, particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel, and evaluates the potential for a global carbon tax to fund the continent's energy transition and conservation efforts. It analyzes various carbon pricing scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment model aligns best with the Paris Agreement's principles of fairness and historical responsibility.

• Deforestation and land-use changes are significant drivers of global emissions, contributing between 11% and 20% of the total. Africa experienced the second-highest deforestation rate between 2000 and 2018, with 49 million hectares lost, primarily due to cropland expansion.
• The Congo Basin is a critical global carbon sink, absorbing 4% of world CO2 emissions, with peatlands storing approximately 30 billion metric tonnes of carbon. However, the region has lost 30% of its forest cover since 2001, largely within the DR Congo, due to unregulated mining, logging, and agricultural expansion.
• Desertification affects approximately 45% of Africa's land area, with the Sahel region being particularly impacted. The African Union's Great Green Wall initiative, launched in 2007, aims to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land and capture 250 million tons of CO2 by 2030.
• Current global carbon pricing is fragmented and largely insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals; only 1% of emissions covered by a carbon price are at a recommended price range sufficient to curb emissions. Collectively, carbon taxes and emission trading systems cover 24% of global emissions.
• The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), starting in 2026, targets carbon-intensive goods like steel, aluminium, and cement. There are concerns that CBAM may harm African economies, including South Africa, which is considering a challenge at the World Trade Organisation.
• Among four illustrative carbon tax scenarios, the 'Differentiated Pay' scenario—where tax rates are based on income classification—is the most effective at reducing emissions and aligns with the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'. This scenario could result in atmospheric CO2 levels being 3.4% lower in 2063 compared to the current path.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). African Responses to Climate Change. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. African Responses to Climate Change. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=African Responses to Climate Change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026african, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{African Responses to Climate Change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }