African Responses to Climate Change

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines two primary policy responses to climate change in Africa: carbon sequestration through forest regeneration and the implementation of a global carbon tax. It highlights the critical role of the Congo Basin as a carbon sink and analyzes four illustrative global carbon tax scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment approach aligns best with international equity principles and the Paris Agreement.

• Forest regeneration and the preservation of savannas and grasslands are critical for reducing emissions, as deforestation and land-use changes account for between 11% and 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
• The Congo Basin is a vital global carbon sink, absorbing 4% of world CO2 emissions, with its peatlands storing approximately 30 billion metric tonnes of carbon. However, the region has lost 30% of its forest cover since 2001, primarily in the DR Congo, driven by cropland expansion, unregulated logging, and mining.
• Desertification affects approximately 45% of Africa's land area, particularly in the Sahel. The African Union's Great Green Wall initiative, launched in 2007, aims to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land and capture 250 million tons of CO2 by 2030.
• Current global carbon pricing is fragmented and largely insufficient; only 24% of global emissions are covered by carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, and only 1% of emissions are priced at a level sufficient to meet Paris goals.
• The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), starting in 2026, targets carbon-intensive goods like steel and cement to prevent carbon leakage. This poses a risk to low- and middle-income African economies that lack the resources to decarbonise, leading some countries, such as South Africa, to consider challenges via the World Trade Organisation.
• Among four modeled carbon tax scenarios, the 'Differentiated Pay' scenariowhere taxes are scaled by income levelis the most effective, reducing CO2 equivalent emissions from 36 billion tons to 31.2 billion tons by 2050 and potentially lowering average global temperatures by up to 0.2 C by 2063 compared to the Current Path.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). African Responses to Climate Change. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. African Responses to Climate Change. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=African Responses to Climate Change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026african, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{African Responses to Climate Change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=06-responses-to-climate-change}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }