Current Path: Thematic Futures

The report analyzes Africa's high level of commodity dependence, noting that commodity exports constituted 90% by value of all merchandise exports in 2021. It argues that this dependence often leads to the 'resource curse,' characterized by poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. While some countries like Botswana have attempted to manage resources through sovereign wealth funds, many others face volatility and 'Dutch disease.' The text also highlights how the global energy transition is shifting demand toward minerals like cobalt and lithium, and how climate change is exacerbating vulnerability by reducing agricultural yields in regions such as the Sahel.

• Africa exhibits the highest level of commodity dependence globally; between 2019 and 2021, nearly half of all commodity-dependent countries worldwide were located in Africa, with commodity exports accounting for 90% of the region's merchandise export value.
• Heavy reliance on single commodities often triggers a 'resource curse,' which is linked to poor governance, an increased likelihood of undemocratic governments, and a 'rentier state' where the government is accountable to special interest groups rather than citizens.
• Comparative economic data shows that resource-poor economies often outperform resource-rich ones; for example, South Korea's GDP per capita was about half of Nigeria's in 1962, but became seven times higher by 2018 as South Korea diversified its exports.
• While several African nations, including Angola, Mauritania, Botswana, Chad, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea, established sovereign wealth funds to manage resource booms, these are frequently undermined by political interference and over-withdrawals.
• The global transition to renewable energy is driving demand for specific minerals including copper, cobalt, platinum, nickel, and lithium for use in batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, while climate change increases vulnerability in regions like the Sahel by reducing agricultural yields.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Current Path: Thematic Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=08-commodity-dependence

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Current Path: Thematic Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=08-commodity-dependence.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Current Path: Thematic Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=08-commodity-dependence |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026current, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Current Path: Thematic Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=08-commodity-dependence}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }