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Sudan possesses significant potential due to its strategic location, diverse mineral deposits, and arable land, yet it remains one of the world's poorest countries. Decades of authoritarian rule and internal conflict, culminating in the civil war since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, have led to the collapse of state institutions and a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Despite its history as a petro-state prior to South Sudan's 2011 secession, the economy suffers from a lack of diversification and chronic trade deficits.

Following the October 2024 elections, Mozambique has faced significant instability characterized by alleged vote rigging and a violent state crackdown. The ruling Frelimo party has maintained power through the suppression of dissent, including the killing of opposition members and journalists, and the strategic appointment of 'secretaries of state' to bypass decentralization. This domestic crisis has disrupted critical regional trade corridors, specifically the Maputo and Beira ports, affecting landlocked neighbors like Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia. The document argues that Frelimo's loss of legitimacy mirrors a broader trend across Southern Africa where former liberation movements are facing declining public support.

The document analyzes Zimbabwe's transition following the ousting of Robert Mugabe, focusing on the 2018 general elections. It argues that while Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF are likely to win, the legitimacy of the process is crucial for unlocking foreign investment and implementing economic reforms. The author suggests a 'pragmatic' economic approach, citing Cote d'Ivoire as a positive model for recovery through IMF engagement and market-friendly policies, while warning against the political instability seen in Egypt. Key priorities identified include addressing the $9 billion debt, stabilizing the currency, and re-engaging with Western partners and the IMF.

The report analyzes the aftermath of the ANC's 54th national conference, where Cyril Ramaphosa narrowly defeated Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. It argues that while Ramaphosa's victory averted a major crisis, the party remains deeply divided between 'reformists' and 'traditionalists,' placing South Africa in a 'muddling along' scenario. Key challenges include the potential recall of Jacob Zuma, avoiding a credit rating downgrade by Moody's, and managing the Tripartite Alliance. The author predicts the ANC will retain national power in 2019 but may lose its majority in Gauteng province, with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) emerging as a potential kingmaker there.

The paper argues that South Africa's extreme inequality, high unemployment, and declining governance effectiveness are fueling social turbulence. It details a shift from state-sponsored apartheid violence to diverse forms of public violence, including service delivery protests, xenophobic attacks, and student unrest. The authors highlight a critical failure in security institutions and a lack of structural economic reform, suggesting the country is at a political turning point where economic stagnation and poor leadership increase the risk of future instability.

The report analyzes the tense pre-election environment in Benin as it approaches a critical electoral cycle in 2015 and 2016. It highlights the failure to update the permanent computerized electoral list (LEPI) as a primary technical bottleneck, while noting that political calculations by various actors have contributed to the postponement of local elections. The document examines the risk of President Thomas Boni Yayi attempting to extend his term through constitutional review, though it concludes that legal barriers from the Constitutional Court and public sentiment make a third term unlikely. It also notes the decline in the credibility of Beninese civil society and recommends that ECOWAS and international partners provide technical assistance and diplomatic pressure to ensure a peaceful transition of power.

The report assesses the risks associated with Uganda's transition to an oil-producing state, focusing on the Lake Albert region. It identifies significant local grievances regarding land tenure and marginalisation, warns of the 'resource curse' potentially undermining democracy through patronage and militarisation, and examines regional security threats, including the alliance between al-Shabaab and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The author argues that the presence of Saracen Security, a company owned by Salim Saleh (brother of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni), in Somalia risks delegitimizing the AMISOM mission. This involvement, combined with Uganda's history in the DRC, provides ideological ammunition for insurgents to claim that Uganda's military presence is driven by a desire for Somali oil. The document notes that international oil companies, such as Africa Oil (Canada), are actively pursuing exploration licenses in Puntland, further complicating the political landscape.

Following the death of Jonas Savimbi in February 2002, the Angolan government and UNITA signed a cease-fire agreement on April 4, 2002. While the document notes a 'window of opportunity' for peace and economic growth, it highlights severe structural challenges, including a collapsed health and education system, destroyed infrastructure, and a dysfunctional formal economy. Despite these hurdles, the report identifies significant investment potential in oil, natural gas, road and rail reconstruction, and agriculture.

The document details the upcoming Angolan elections, highlighting opposition complaints regarding voter registration fraud and the CNE's bias toward the ruling MPLA. It notes that the MPLA is expected to win, ensuring President dos Santos remains in power, but warns that systemic issues—including over-reliance on oil, high unemployment, and lack of basic infrastructure—could fuel social unrest.

The briefing warns that South Sudan's peace process is nearing collapse due to rising tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar. Following clashes in Nasir and the subsequent house arrest of Machar and other opposition figures, the document highlights how economic decline—driven by a 68% drop in oil production—has undermined the patronage systems used to maintain political loyalty. It suggests that the most likely outcome is further entrenchment of armed factions, and urges the African Union to secure the release of detainees and coordinate with IGAD to prevent a total breakdown of the R-ARCSS power-sharing arrangement.