Mozambique: More Repression Will Reverberate at Home and Abroad

This policy brief analyzes the political instability in Mozambique following the October 2024 general elections, which saw the ruling Frelimo party maintain power amid allegations of fraud and widespread popular unrest. The author argues that Frelimo's reliance on repression and institutional capture to maintain legitimacy threatens not only domestic stability but also regional trade and the political stability of other former liberation movements in Southern Africa.

• The October 2024 general elections in Mozambique were characterized by irregularities, including vote tampering and a biased electoral commission, leading to widespread protests. While Frelimo secured another five years in power, the Constitutional Court's December 2024 ruling revised Frelimo's parliamentary share from 78% to 71% and presidential candidate Daniel Chapo's victory from 71% to 67%, an action the author describes as a clumsy attempt to rectify implausibly high vote shares.
• Frelimo has employed a strategy of systemic repression and institutional control to maintain power. This includes the killing of opposition members and journalists, the curtailment of press freedom, and the creation of the 'secretary of state' provincial position in 2019 to ensure presidential control over provinces regardless of electoral outcomes. Between October 2024 and January 2025, more than 300 people were killed and over 3,000 injured during post-election protests.
• Mozambique faces severe socio-economic crises that fuel popular dissent, particularly among youth. Consumption poverty levels rose from 46% to 65% over the last decade, with more than half the population earning less than $1.90 a day. The economy is further burdened by a 'hidden debt scandal' involving $2.2 billion in undisclosed loans taken between 2013 and 2014, which has diverted funds from social support and development.
• Domestic instability has disrupted critical regional trade networks, specifically the Maputo and Beira corridors. The closure of the Lebombo border post due to protests cost the South African economy an estimated ZAR34 10 million ($550,000) per day, while Maputo Port lost approximately MZN35 384 million ($6 million). Landlocked neighbors including Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, and Eswatini rely on these ports for essential imports like fuel and fertilizer and exports of minerals and agriculture.
• There is a growing trend across Southern Africa where former liberation movements are losing legitimacy. The author notes that in 2024, the ANC in South Africa failed to secure a parliamentary majority (receiving 39% of the vote), and the BDP in Botswana suffered a decisive defeat. This trend is creating anxiety for other ruling parties like SWAPO in Namibia and the MPLA in Angola, the latter of which has introduced new electoral legislation to reduce transparency in vote-counting.
• Regional responses to Mozambique's crisis have been limited, largely due to the ANC's loyalty to sister liberation movements. SADC initially congratulated Mozambique on a 'successful transfer of power' on 20 November 2024, despite ongoing violence, and only resolved to engage the government and opposition on 5 January 2025.

APA

LOURENÇO, M. (2025). Mozambique: More Repression Will Reverberate at Home and Abroad. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/CORRECTED-SAIIA_PI_167_MozambiqueMoreRepression.pdf

Chicago

LOURENÇO, MARISA. Mozambique: More Repression Will Reverberate at Home and Abroad. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2025. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/CORRECTED-SAIIA_PI_167_MozambiqueMoreRepression.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=LOURENÇO |first1=MARISA |title=Mozambique: More Repression Will Reverberate at Home and Abroad |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2025 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/CORRECTED-SAIIA_PI_167_MozambiqueMoreRepression.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{loureno2025mozambique, author = {LOURENÇO, MARISA}, title = {{Mozambique: More Repression Will Reverberate at Home and Abroad}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/CORRECTED-SAIIA_PI_167_MozambiqueMoreRepression.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }