ZIMBABWE: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP?

The document analyzes Zimbabwe's transition following the ousting of Robert Mugabe, focusing on the 2018 general elections. It argues that while Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF are likely to win, the legitimacy of the process is crucial for unlocking foreign investment and implementing economic reforms. The author suggests a 'pragmatic' economic approach, citing Cote d'Ivoire as a positive model for recovery through IMF engagement and market-friendly policies, while warning against the political instability seen in Egypt. Key priorities identified include addressing the $9 billion debt, stabilizing the currency, and re-engaging with Western partners and the IMF.

• President Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF are positioned to win the July 30, 2018, elections due to the power of incumbency, military backing, and a successful rebranding of the party as the liberators of the 'New Zimbabwe'.
• The legitimacy of the 2018 election is viewed as a critical prerequisite for economic recovery, as it would provide Mnangagwa the mandate to implement reforms and attract skittish investors.
• Expected economic priorities under Mnangagwa include attracting foreign investment, adopting orthodox fiscal and monetary policies, and tackling corruption to replace the policies of the Mugabe era.
• To revive the economy, Zimbabwe needs to address specific structural hurdles, including clearing $9 billion in outstanding debt, removing US sanctions, and re-establishing a relationship with the IMF.
• The government has begun some market-friendly reforms, such as the partial repeal of the Indigenisation and Empowerment Act and the planned sale of shares in 35 state-owned parastatals to private investors.
• There is a proposal for Zimbabwe to join the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the Common Monetary Area (CMA) to peg its currency to the South African rand, which could potentially earn the country $200 million annually.
• The Zimbabwean diaspora, numbering between 500,000 and 4 million people, remains a vital economic lifeline through remittances, which totaled $1.4 billion in the previous year.

APA

GOPALDAS, R. (2018). ZIMBABWE: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Policy-Insights-64.pdf

Chicago

GOPALDAS, RONAK. ZIMBABWE: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2018. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Policy-Insights-64.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=GOPALDAS |first1=RONAK |title=ZIMBABWE: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Policy-Insights-64.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gopaldas2018zimbabwe, author = {GOPALDAS, RONAK}, title = {{ZIMBABWE: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Policy-Insights-64.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }