The Power of Oil

The report assesses the risks associated with Uganda's transition to an oil-producing state, focusing on the Lake Albert region. It identifies significant local grievances regarding land tenure and marginalisation, warns of the 'resource curse' potentially undermining democracy through patronage and militarisation, and examines regional security threats, including the alliance between al-Shabaab and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

• Fieldwork in the Lake Albert region reveals deep-seated fears and distrust among local communities, specifically regarding forced displacement for oil infrastructure, negative environmental impacts, and a lack of legal frameworks governing the sector.
• Communal land ownership in the oil-producing region is a critical point of tension; the absence of title deeds makes residents vulnerable to land speculation and manipulation by politically connected individuals.
• The Bunyoro Kingdom perceives itself as being politically marginalised and excluded from consultations and benefits regarding the oil discovered in its territory.
• There is a significant risk that oil revenues will undermine Ugandan democracy through the 'rentier effect' (using patronage to buy consent) and the 'repression effect' (increasing military spending to suppress dissent).
• Uganda has already shown signs of increased militarisation linked to oil, including a $740 million purchase of Russian fighter jets and tanks, which officials claim are necessary to protect the strategic oil industry.
• The security of Uganda's oil fields is threatened by a regional alliance between the Somali-based al-Shabaab and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) operating from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
• Relations between Uganda and the DRC remain strained due to a history of resource plunder during the DRC wars and the failure to implement joint oil exploration agreements under the Ngurdoto Pact.
• Local livelihoods are being disrupted by oil activities, with fishermen reporting dwindling catches and temporary bans on fishing imposed by the military without compensation.

APA

de Kock, P., & Sturman, K. (2012). The Power of Oil. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Research-Report-10.pdf

Chicago

de Kock, Petrus, and Kathryn Sturman. The Power of Oil. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2012. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Research-Report-10.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Kock |first1=Petrus |last2=Sturman |first2=Kathryn |title=The Power of Oil |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=March 2012 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Research-Report-10.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dekock2012power, author = {de Kock, Petrus and Sturman, Kathryn}, title = {{The Power of Oil}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2012}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Research-Report-10.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }