Benin elections: the waiting game

The report analyzes the tense pre-election environment in Benin as it approaches a critical electoral cycle in 2015 and 2016. It highlights the failure to update the permanent computerized electoral list (LEPI) as a primary technical bottleneck, while noting that political calculations by various actors have contributed to the postponement of local elections. The document examines the risk of President Thomas Boni Yayi attempting to extend his term through constitutional review, though it concludes that legal barriers from the Constitutional Court and public sentiment make a third term unlikely. It also notes the decline in the credibility of Beninese civil society and recommends that ECOWAS and international partners provide technical assistance and diplomatic pressure to ensure a peaceful transition of power.

• The postponement of local, communal, and municipal elections originally due in 2013 is attributed to both the unavailability of an updated electoral list and strategic political calculations. Some politicians believe their chances of winning would increase if elections were held closer to the end of President Thomas Boni Yayi's term, as his influence is perceived to be greater in rural areas.
• The process of updating the permanent computerized electoral list (LEPI) faces significant technological, financial, and political hurdles. The decision to use optical scanning was made against expert advice and is deemed inappropriate for an electoral list, leading to a waste of resources. Financially, development partners refused to fund the update due to previous negative experiences, forcing the government to provide an additional FCFA 3.1 billion.
• There are widespread concerns that President Yayi may seek a third term, but the report identifies two major obstacles: the Constitutional Court and public will. The Court has issued decisions rejecting any review of the two-term limit, and the public's memory of the 1989 revolution and the 2014 events in Burkina Faso serves as a deterrent against unconstitutional power grabs.
• Benin's civil society, which was instrumental in the 'Democratic Renewal' of the 1990s, has become weakened and less credible. This decline is due to leading figures joining the political arena through government appointments and some organizations aligning with specific political parties.
• The failure to produce a high-quality electoral list in time for the 2015 and 2016 polls could lead to a legal vacuum or a crisis of legitimacy. While a total extension of the president's term is dismissed as unlikely, the report suggests that the best solution to a deadlock would be a transition led by the president of the Constitutional Court or the speaker of the National Assembly.
• The transition to a new president in 2016 will face significant socio-economic challenges, specifically the 'time bomb' of youth unemployment and entrenched corruption. The report warns that if the new administration fails to tackle corruption and impunity, public disenchantment could lead to street protests and attacks on democracy.

APA

Laleyè, F. A. (2014). Benin elections: the waiting game. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS_11_Benin.pdf

Chicago

Laleyè, Francis Adébola. Benin elections: the waiting game. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS_11_Benin.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Laleyè |first1=Francis Adébola |title=Benin elections: the waiting game |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=December 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS_11_Benin.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{laley2014benin, author = {Laleyè, Francis Adébola}, title = {{Benin elections: the waiting game}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS_11_Benin.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }