South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa

This report analyzes the political and economic implications of Cyril Ramaphosa's narrow victory at the African National Congress (ANC) 54th national conference in December 2017. The author argues that while the result averted a major party split, South Africa remains in a "muddling along" scenario characterized by deep factional divisions and economic fragility. The document examines the prospects for the 2019 elections, the potential recall of Jacob Zuma, and the need for structural reforms to avoid credit rating downgrades and stimulate growth.

• The ANC's 54th national conference resulted in a narrow victory for Cyril Ramaphosa, leaving the party deeply divided between a "reformist camp" and a "traditionalist grouping" led by Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. This division is mirrored in the National Executive Committee (NEC), which is described as being "split down the middle."
• The report forecasts that the ANC will likely retain its status as the governing party in the 2019 elections with approximately 53% of the vote, down from 62% in 2014. However, the party could lose its majority in Gauteng province, potentially making the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) a "kingmaker" in that region.
• A critical priority for the new ANC leadership is the recall of President Jacob Zuma. The author suggests that the longer Zuma remains in power, the more opposition parties may benefit in 2019 and the higher the risk of a long-term local currency debt rating downgrade by Moody's.
• South Africa's economic growth is threatened by potential credit rating downgrades. If Moody's downgrades the long-term local currency debt, the author argues that the National Development Plan's target of an average growth rate of 5.4% to 2030 will be "unachievable," with a more likely average growth rate of 2.5% from 2018 to 2034.
• The ANC conference reached two significant policy decisions regarding land: amending section 25 of the constitution to allow for land expropriation without compensation (provided it does not undermine food security and the economy), and initiating a process to reduce the authority of traditional leaders over communal land to eventually give communities "13% of land."
• South Africa's foreign policy is expected to continue emphasizing South-South solidarity and anti-imperialist orientations, maintaining ties with Cuba, Palestine, and Venezuela. The author notes that values like democracy and human rights have had "limited expression" in foreign policy under Mbeki and Zuma and are unlikely to change significantly under Ramaphosa.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2017). South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2018-01-12-hsf-report-ramaphosa.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2018-01-12-hsf-report-ramaphosa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=20 December 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2018-01-12-hsf-report-ramaphosa.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2017south, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2018-01-12-hsf-report-ramaphosa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }