South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa

The report analyzes the aftermath of the ANC's 54th national conference, where Cyril Ramaphosa narrowly defeated Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. It argues that while Ramaphosa's victory averted a major crisis, the party remains deeply divided between 'reformists' and 'traditionalists,' placing South Africa in a 'muddling along' scenario. Key challenges include the potential recall of Jacob Zuma, avoiding a credit rating downgrade by Moody's, and managing the Tripartite Alliance. The author predicts the ANC will retain national power in 2019 but may lose its majority in Gauteng province, with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) emerging as a potential kingmaker there.

• The ANC remains sharply divided following the 54th national conference, with the National Executive Committee (NEC) split between reformist and traditionalist factions, leading to a 'muddling along' scenario for the country.
• The recall of Jacob Zuma is viewed as a critical necessity to prevent further deterioration of South Africa's long-term local currency debt ratings and to limit the gains of opposition parties in the 2019 elections.
• Economic growth targets, including a 5% target by 2023, are contingent on avoiding a junk status downgrade by Moody's; otherwise, growth is forecasted to average only 2.5% from 2018 to 2034.
• For the 2019 elections, the ANC is projected to retain its national majority with approximately 53% of the vote, but it faces a high risk of losing its majority in Gauteng, where the EFF could become a kingmaker.
• The ANC decided to pursue the expropriation of land without compensation by amending section 25 of the constitution, provided it does not harm food security or the economy, and intends to reduce the authority of traditional leaders over communal land.
• South Africa's foreign policy is expected to remain focused on South-South solidarity and anti-imperialism, though Ramaphosa may introduce a more nuanced approach to trade and investment to unlock capital from the EU.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2017). South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2018-01-12-hsf-report-ramaphosa.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2018-01-12-hsf-report-ramaphosa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=20 December 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2018-01-12-hsf-report-ramaphosa.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2017south, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{South Africa’s prospects under Cyril Ramaphosa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2018-01-12-hsf-report-ramaphosa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }