The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast

The briefing warns that South Sudan's peace process is nearing collapse due to rising tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar. Following clashes in Nasir and the subsequent house arrest of Machar and other opposition figures, the document highlights how economic decline—driven by a 68% drop in oil production—has undermined the patronage systems used to maintain political loyalty. It suggests that the most likely outcome is further entrenchment of armed factions, and urges the African Union to secure the release of detainees and coordinate with IGAD to prevent a total breakdown of the R-ARCSS power-sharing arrangement.

• Political instability has escalated following the house arrest of First Vice-President Riek Machar on 26 March, triggered by skirmishes between the Dinka-dominated South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Nuer militia White Army in Nasir.
• President Salva Kiir is accused of using unilateral cabinet reshuffles to orchestrate a succession plan outside the 2018 R-ARCSS framework, which has deepened mistrust and created a perception that he is consolidating power.
• A severe economic downturn, primarily caused by a sharp decline in oil revenues, has weakened the ability of political leaders to maintain the patronage infrastructure necessary to command the loyalty of armed factions. Between December 2024 and January 2025, daily oil production decreased by approximately 68%.
• The most probable outcome is a further entrenchment of the SSPDF and associated militias, which could lead to the total collapse of the peace process and the Tumaini high-level process.
• The African Union, as a guarantor of the R-ARCSS, is urged to secure the release and reinstatement of Machar and other arbitrarily detained opposition officials and to establish a contact group with IGAD for daily de-escalation.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-window-to-salvage-south-sudan-s-peace-process-is-closing-fast

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast. n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-window-to-salvage-south-sudan-s-peace-process-is-closing-fast.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-window-to-salvage-south-sudan-s-peace-process-is-closing-fast |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndwindow, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-window-to-salvage-south-sudan-s-peace-process-is-closing-fast}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }