The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies warns that the peace process in South Sudan is at risk of collapse following the house arrest of First Vice-President Riek Machar and the detention of other opposition figures. The document attributes the crisis to deep-seated mistrust between President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, unilateral government reshuffles, and a severe economic downturn driven by falling oil revenues. It urges the African Union to intervene urgently to prevent further escalation and maintain the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).

• On 26 March, South Sudanese security forces placed First Vice-President Riek Machar under house arrest and detained several high-ranking military officers and opposition ministers from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition. This action followed skirmishes in early March between the Nuer militia White Army and the Dinka-dominated South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF), which were reportedly caused by a dispute over soldier rotations in the Nasir garrison.
• The stability of the transitional government is undermined by President Salva Kiir's unilateral cabinet reshuffles, which are viewed as attempts to orchestrate his own succession outside the framework of the 2018 R-ARCSS. This behavior reflects a deep mistrust between Kiir and Machar, as neither leader has unified their respective armed groups into a single national force.
• South Sudan is experiencing a severe economic downturn caused by financial mismanagement and the civil war in Sudan, which has disrupted oil production. Because oil provides 90% of the country's revenue, a production decline of approximately 68% between December 2024 and January 2025 has weakened the ability of political leaders to maintain patronage networks and ensure the loyalty of armed factions.
• The most probable outcome of the current crisis is the further entrenchment of the SSPDF and associated militias, potentially leading to the total collapse of the peace process and the Tumaini high-level process. A less likely alternative is the conditional release of Machar, provided he renounces the White Army and allows the integration of opposition forces into the SSPDF, though this is considered improbable as it would alienate him from the Nuer community.
• The African Union, as a guarantor of the R-ARCSS, is urged to take immediate action to de-escalate tensions. Recommended steps include the Peace and Security Council (PSC) securing the release and reinstatement of all arbitrarily detained opposition officials and the creation of a contact group with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to manage day-to-day de-escalation.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-window-to-salvage-south-sudan-s-peace-process-is-closing-fast

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast. n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-window-to-salvage-south-sudan-s-peace-process-is-closing-fast.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-window-to-salvage-south-sudan-s-peace-process-is-closing-fast |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndwindow, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{The window to salvage South Sudan’s peace process is closing fast}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-window-to-salvage-south-sudan-s-peace-process-is-closing-fast}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }