State Futures in the Global South

The report examines the evolution of governance in the Global South, tracing the impact of colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes. It analyzes current governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, noting a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity in some regions, while others show improved state capacity despite limited democratic freedoms.

• Modern state structures in the Global South were heavily influenced by colonial rule, which imposed administrative frameworks that frequently ignored indigenous governance systems. Post-independence, these states struggled with nation-building and institutional development to align these inherited structures with domestic social and economic conditions.
• International financial institutions implemented structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) during the 1980s and 1990s that mandated state downsizing and economic liberalisation. While intended to grow the economy, these reforms often weakened state capacity and increased social discontent and inequality.
• Governance in the Global South is not monolithic; different regions have followed distinct paths. China used a state-led model combining centralised governance with market reforms, while Southeast Asian states like Singapore and Vietnam used strong state capacity for growth. In contrast, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa have been more influenced by democratic transitions and external financial dependencies.
• Current governance in the Global South is often characterised by 'hybrid regimes' that hold regular elections but do not fully adhere to democratic principles. These regimes are typically more unstable than either full autocracies or liberal democracies.
• There is a notable disconnect between political participation and governance capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. These regions score relatively high on Voice and Accountability, but low on Government Effectiveness and Regulatory Quality, a phenomenon described as 'premature democratisation'.
• Conversely, regions such as East Asia and parts of Central Asia show the opposite trend: they have lower scores for Voice and Accountability but have seen significant improvements in Regulatory Quality and Government Effectiveness, indicating increased state capacity despite constrained political freedoms.
• The governance landscape is being reshaped by non-state actors, including civil society, private sector actors, and traditional leaders, moving toward networked governance. However, in some areas, non-state armed actors like militias and criminal organisations challenge formal governance through coercion.

APA

Cilliers, J., & van Rooyen, M. (2026). State Futures in the Global South. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=03-historical-overview

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Michelle van Rooyen. State Futures in the Global South. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=03-historical-overview.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=van Rooyen |first2=Michelle |title=State Futures in the Global South |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=03-historical-overview |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026state, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{State Futures in the Global South}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=03-historical-overview}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }