State Futures in the Global South

This research paper provides a historical and contemporary overview of governance in the Global South, examining how colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes have shaped modern state structures. It analyzes governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and highlights a divergence between political participation and institutional capacity across different regions.

• Modern state structures in the Global South were heavily influenced by colonial rule, which implemented administrative frameworks—such as presidential or parliamentary systems—that frequently ignored indigenous governance systems.
• International financial institutions led structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) during the 1980s and 1990s that required state downsizing and economic liberalisation; while intended to grow the economy, these often reduced state capacity and increased social discontent and inequality.
• Governance in the Global South is not uniform, with diverse models emerging: China used a state-led model combining market reforms with centralised governance, while Singapore and Vietnam used strong state capacity for growth, contrasting with the democratic transitions and financial dependencies seen in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
• Contemporary governance in the Global South often manifests as 'hybrid regimes' that combine formal structures with informal power dynamics or customary law. In these contexts, state legitimacy is frequently based on performance—such as the ability to maintain order and deliver services—rather than procedural norms like elections.
• Analysis of World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) up to 2023 shows a global trend of stagnation and regression, with stability declining in both the Global North and South, though the decline is sharper in the Global North.
• There is a disconnect between political participation and governance capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, where relatively high scores in 'Voice and Accountability' have not led to improvements in 'Government Effectiveness' or 'Regulatory Quality', a trend described as 'premature democratisation'.
• In contrast to Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, East Asia and parts of Central Asia show lower levels of 'Voice and Accountability' but have achieved notable improvements in 'Regulatory Quality' and 'Government Effectiveness', resulting in better development outcomes despite constrained political freedoms.

APA

Cilliers, J., & van Rooyen, M. (2026). State Futures in the Global South. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=03-historical-overview

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Michelle van Rooyen. State Futures in the Global South. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=03-historical-overview.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=van Rooyen |first2=Michelle |title=State Futures in the Global South |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=03-historical-overview |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026state, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{State Futures in the Global South}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=03-historical-overview}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }