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The document examines the necessity of the AfCFTA for overcoming Africa's fragmented markets and limited intra-continental trade. It highlights that success depends on regional value chains, infrastructure investment, and the removal of non-tariff barriers. The authors emphasize that while the AfCFTA is crucial for long-term growth, national governments must manage the short-term political and economic pain of tariff losses and address the challenges of integrating unequal economies.

The document establishes a conceptual framework for analyzing the future of state governance in the Global South. It defines state governance as the structures and processes used to exercise authority and manage resources, emphasizing a shift away from Global North-centric democratic models toward 'accountable governance'. The research employs a foresight-driven approach to investigate how technology, economic transitions, and geopolitical shifts influence governance trajectories across seven defined regions of the Global South.

The AfCFTA agreement, effective since January 2021, is being implemented in three phases covering trade in goods, services, investment, and digital trade. While 47 of 55 countries had ratified the agreement by January 2024, progress varies across specific instruments, such as the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons.

The report examines the shift in African development from state-led industrialization and the pan-Africanist Lagos Plan of Action (1980) to the market-oriented Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) of the 1980s. It argues that while the Lagos Plan sought collective self-reliance, it failed due to a lack of national integration and monitoring. Conversely, SAPs—driven by the 'Washington Consensus'—forced devaluation, privatization, and spending cuts in health and education, which the author contends led to a 'race to the bottom,' stunted industrialization, and a decline in per capita income between 1980 and 1994.

The report finds that while the percentage of Africans living in extreme poverty has declined since the 1990s, the absolute number of poor people continues to rise due to rapid population growth. Africa is projected to miss the 2030 SDG goal of eliminating extreme poverty, with several countries likely to maintain poverty rates above 50% by that date. The document attributes these challenges to high inequality, over-reliance on natural resources, and bad governance, noting that Sub-Saharan Africa carries the largest global burden of extreme poverty.

The document concludes that African development is a non-linear, complex process requiring a shift from 'grand schemes' to the 'mundane functions' of governance and technical implementation. It emphasizes that success depends on national ownership, a social contract between citizens and the state, and consistent investment in knowledge creation and innovation to move up the productivity curve. The author outlines eight requirements for transformation, including strategic prioritization of catalytic interventions like agriculture and digital infrastructure, and the capacity for implementation through capable civil services.

The document analyzes the trajectory of Africa's fossil fuel emissions, noting that while the continent currently contributes less than 5% of global emissions, this share is projected to rise to 12.5% by 2063 under the Current Path and 15% under the Combined scenario. It identifies a small number of countries—most notably Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa—as the primary drivers of the continent's carbon footprint, with Nigeria projected to become the continent's largest emitter by 2050.

The report analyzes the structural, social, environmental, and geopolitical forces influencing Africa's health and WaSH sectors. It highlights the dual nature of demographic shifts as both a pressure on services and a potential development dividend, while noting that climate change is intensifying water stress and disease distribution. The text emphasizes the role of technological innovation, the need for reduced aid dependency in financing, and the impact of social norms on service access. Finally, it discusses Africa's evolving role in global health diplomacy amidst uncertainties regarding international cooperation and geopolitical rivalry.

The research paper presents a Gender scenario for Africa that models the developmental impact of reducing gender gaps in labour, politics, education, and health. It compares a 'business-as-usual' path against an ambitious but realistic reduction in inequalities from 2024 to 2033, maintaining those gains until 2043. The model emphasizes the bidirectional relationship between gender equality and economic growth, noting that while empowering women drives development, economic growth also creates the fiscal space to further reduce gender gaps.

The document outlines a projected shift in Africa's labour market from 2023 to 2043, where a 'Combined scenario' envisions a significant decrease in informal employment from 58% to 40%. This transition is expected to be driven by a resurgence in manufacturing, digital innovation, and targeted investments in infrastructure and skills, leading to improved social protection and government revenue.

The Manufacturing scenario projects a structural economic transformation for Africa by 2043, increasing the manufacturing sector's GDP share to 18.1% and adding US$282.8 billion to the continent's total GDP. This shift is expected to generate 34.6 million additional jobs, primarily unskilled roles in agro-processing and services, while increasing government revenue by US$81.6 billion. The scenario forecasts a reduction in extreme poverty, lifting 19.11 million more people out of poverty by 2043 than the Current Path, and predicts a long-term decrease in income inequality through the expansion of the middle class.

The document concludes that Africa's current economic path is characterised by low productivity and 'premature deindustrialisation', where labour shifts from subsistence agriculture to low-end informal urban services rather than manufacturing. It highlights a reliance on 'capital-intensive commodity enclaves' that fail to build local value chains or improve broad welfare. To reverse this, the author argues for strategic investments in renewable energy, education, health infrastructure, and digital literacy, alongside the use of the AfCFTA to foster intra-African trade. The text emphasizes that achieving the African Union's Agenda 2063 requires strong governance, gender equity, and international partnerships for financing and technology transfer.

The report describes a shift in the global and internal perception of Africa, moving from negative stereotypes of poverty and conflict toward a narrative of innovation, cultural richness, and strategic agency. This transformation is driven by the rise of African storytelling, digital platforms, and cultural movements like Afrofuturism. The document argues that these changing narratives enhance Africa's geopolitical leverage in forums like the G20 and BRICS, attract foreign investment, and foster continental integration through initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

The document analyzes Africa's economic trajectory, noting that while the absolute size of the economy is growing, its share of global GDP remains stagnant at around 3% despite a rapidly increasing population. It highlights a widening gap in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world, attributing this to a reliance on raw material exports, the 'resource curse', and a slow recovery from COVID-19. By 2043, Nigeria is projected to become the world's third-largest country by population, and the five largest African economies are expected to be Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

The document outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. It details the specific interventions used to simulate the agreement's impact—including import tax reductions and productivity increases—and specifies the tariff phase-out timelines for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), non-LDCs, and the G6 countries. The authors characterize the scenario as an optimistic forecast that depends on political commitment and stakeholder engagement.

The report analyzes global carbon emissions, noting that 2023 saw record levels of 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent from fossil fuels. It highlights the dominance of a few producers and the significant impact of coal and methane. While China and the EU are pursuing decarbonization, the US experience fluctuates with political administrations. The report forecasts a peak in emissions by 2037/8, but warns that atmospheric CO2 concentrations could reach 551 ppm by 2063, potentially leading to a 3°C temperature rise. Africa is identified as particularly vulnerable, facing increasing emissions from population growth and significant forest loss, with 100 million hectares cleared over three decades.

The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.

The Clean Air Task Force reports that New Mexico's 2026 legislative session achieved progress in clean energy and environmental protection through targeted investments and legislation, despite a short, budget-focused calendar. Key successes included updating the Advanced Energy Equipment Tax Credit (HB 154), passing C-PACE financing (HB 165) to support a $1 billion investment by Pacific Fusion, and increasing funding for the oil and gas reclamation fund (HB 80). While the Low-Carbon Construction Material Rebate Act (HB 153) was vetoed by the Governor, the General Appropriation Act of 2026 provided significant funding for geothermal projects ($10 million), grid modernization ($10 million), and low-interest loans for emissions-reducing technologies in underserved communities ($5 million).

The Kuala Lumpur Declaration demands that developed countries fulfill their climate debt through grant-based finance, including an estimated USD 5.1–6.8 trillion by 2030. It advocates for a global Fossil Fuel Treaty, the rejection of 'false solutions' like carbon removal and nuclear power, and the dismantling of restrictive intellectual property regimes to accelerate technology transfer. The declaration further calls for tripling adaptation finance by 2035 and scaling the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage to hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

Between 2021 and 2025, 19 major European banks facilitated 216 bond issuances for oil and gas developers, raising 219 billion euros. The report highlights that 2025 saw the highest number of such issuances, with Barclays, Deutsche Bank, BBVA, Santander, and Standard Chartered as the top facilitators. It argues that bond markets have become a critical funding source for fossil fuel expansion and criticizes the 'facilitated emissions' formulas used in bank climate policies as inadequate, urging a shift toward 'sector portfolio financing volume' (SPFV) targets and total exclusion policies across the entire value chain.