Economic size, population and growth rates

The document analyzes Africa's economic trajectory, noting that while the absolute size of the economy is growing, its share of global GDP remains stagnant at around 3% despite a rapidly increasing population. It highlights a widening gap in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world, attributing this to a reliance on raw material exports, the 'resource curse', and a slow recovery from COVID-19. By 2043, Nigeria is projected to become the world's third-largest country by population, and the five largest African economies are expected to be Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

• Africa's absolute economic size is increasing, projected to reach US$6.4 trillion by 2043, but its share of the global economy has remained stagnant at approximately 3% since 1960.
• The African population is growing significantly faster than its economic output; it rose from 283 million (9% of global population) in 1960 to 1.47 billion (16%) in 2023, and is projected to reach 2.3 billion (25%) by 2043.
• Under the 'Current Path', Africa's average economic growth (4.4%) and population growth (2.2%) from 2024 to 2043 will result in a slow per capita income growth of only 1.3%.
• The gap in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world is widening; Africa's GDP per capita was about half of the global average in 1960, fell to 28% in 2023, and is forecast to decline to 27% by 2043.
• Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya are projected to be the five largest economies in Africa by 2043, with Nigeria currently the largest measured by market exchange rates.
• Africa's economic structure is heavily dependent on raw material and natural resource exports, which has limited industrial development and made the continent vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations and the 'resource curse'.
• The impact of COVID-19 was more severe in Africa than elsewhere, with the continent expected to recover to 2019 pre-pandemic income levels only by 2027, compared to 2022 for the rest of the world.
• The informal economy varies significantly by country, with Zimbabwe having the highest contribution to GDP at 54% and Seychelles the lowest at less than 9%.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Economic size, population and growth rates. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Economic size, population and growth rates. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Economic size, population and growth rates |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026economic, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Economic size, population and growth rates}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }