Economic size, population and growth rates

This research paper analyzes the economic trajectory of Africa on its 'Current Path' through 2043, highlighting a growing divergence in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world despite an increase in the absolute size of the African economy.

• The absolute size of the African economy has grown significantly, from US$319 million in 1960 to US$2.7 trillion in 2023, and is projected to reach US$6.4 trillion by 2043. However, its share of the global economy has remained stagnant at approximately 3% since 1960 and is only expected to marginally increase to 3.3% by 2043, even as Africa's share of the global population is forecast to reach 25% (2.3 billion people) by 2043.
• Africa's GDP per capita relative to the rest of the world has declined over time. In 1960, it was about 50% of the global average; by 2023, it had fallen to 28%, and it is projected to decline further to 27% by 2043. The absolute gap in GDP per capita is forecast to grow from US$12,080 in 2023 to US$16,391 in 2043.
• Nigeria is currently the largest African economy by market exchange rates and is projected to be one of the five largest economies in Africa by 2043, alongside Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Nigeria's population is expected to surpass that of the United States by 2043, making it the third-largest population globally.
• On the 'Current Path' from 2024 to 2043, the African economy is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.4%, while the population grows at 2.2%. This results in a slow average per capita income growth of 1.3%, which leads to only modest poverty reductions and a continued dependence on the informal sector as formal employment fails to keep pace with labour force growth.
• Africa's economic structure is characterized by a heavy reliance on exporting raw materials and natural resources, a legacy of colonial policies and poor governance. This commodity dependence has limited industrial diversification and made economies vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Furthermore, resource wealth has often led to a 'resource curse,' where rents consolidate elite power, exacerbate inequality, and undermine democracy.
• The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on African well-being, with the continent recovering more slowly than other regions due to limited financial means and vaccine access. Africans are projected to recover to their 2019 pre-pandemic income levels only by 2027, compared to 2022 for the rest of the world, effectively costing the continent eight years of income growth.
• Africa's developmental performance has lagged behind other developing regions. While Africa's GDP per capita was more than double that of South Asia and 44% of South America's in 1960, by 2023 it had fallen to 73% of South Asia's and 32% of South America's GDP per capita.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Economic size, population and growth rates. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Economic size, population and growth rates. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Economic size, population and growth rates |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026economic, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Economic size, population and growth rates}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=03-economic-size}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }