Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast

This report analyzes global carbon emissions from fossil fuels and land use, providing forecasts through 2063. It highlights the dominance of coal, the climate impact of LNG, and the roles of major emitters like China, the US, and India, while detailing the specific environmental pressures facing Africa, including deforestation and water scarcity.

• In 2020, approximately 86% of global carbon dioxide emissions were attributed to industry processes and fossil fuels, with 70-75% coming directly from fossil fuel combustion and 10-15% from industrial processes. By 2023, more than half of global greenhouse gas emissions were linked to 36 cement and fossil fuel producers.
• Coal is the most significant source of carbon emissions among fossil fuels, contributing nearly 44% of global emissions from fuel combustion in 2021, followed by oil (32%) and natural gas (22%). While natural gas has lower emissions than coal or oil, it releases methane, which is over 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.
• Liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced from shale gas, particularly in the United States, is associated with substantial methane emissions during liquefaction and transport. Analysis suggests that over a 20-year period, LNG's greenhouse gas emissions are 33% worse than those of coal.
• Global emissions from fossil fuels reached a record 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually by 2023. Ten countries—China, the USA, India, Russia, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea—account for 69% of these emissions, 61% of global GDP, and 60% of the world's population.
• Atmospheric CO2 concentrations reached 427 ppm as of 2024, up from pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. Without breakthroughs in carbon sequestration or a collective response, concentrations are forecast to reach 551 ppm by 2063 and 569 ppm by 2100, potentially leading to a global temperature rise of at least 3°C above pre-industrial levels.
• The 'Current Path' forecast predicts fossil fuel emissions will peak at 37.14 billion tons of CO2 equivalent per annum in 2037/8 before declining to 2020 levels by 2049. This decline is driven by reductions in Europe, India, the US, and China, though the final rate will be heavily influenced by Africa's development and population growth.
• The EU27 has legally committed to reducing emissions by at least 55% by 2030 (relative to 1990) and achieving net-zero by 2050. This is supported by the European Green Deal and the carbon border adjustment mechanism (EU CBAM) phased in starting May 2023.
• In Africa, land use changes and population growth are driving significant deforestation. Between 2023 and 2063, African forests are projected to shrink by 14% to 546 million hectares, while cropland is expected to increase from 301 million to 357 million hectares and grazing land from 876 million to 990 million hectares.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026carbon, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }