Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast

The report analyzes global carbon emissions, noting that 2023 saw record levels of 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent from fossil fuels. It highlights the dominance of a few producers and the significant impact of coal and methane. While China and the EU are pursuing decarbonization, the US experience fluctuates with political administrations. The report forecasts a peak in emissions by 2037/8, but warns that atmospheric CO2 concentrations could reach 551 ppm by 2063, potentially leading to a 3°C temperature rise. Africa is identified as particularly vulnerable, facing increasing emissions from population growth and significant forest loss, with 100 million hectares cleared over three decades.

• Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached a record 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually by 2023, which is more than five times the levels seen in 1960.
• A small number of entities are responsible for a majority of emissions; over 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 are linked to 36 fossil fuel and cement producers.
• The report forecasts that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach 551 ppm by 2063 and 569 ppm by 2100 without carbon sequestration breakthroughs, risking a global temperature increase of at least 3°C above pre-industrial levels.
• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is assessed as 33% worse in terms of greenhouse gas emissions over a 20-year period than coal, partly due to methane emissions from shale gas production in the US.
• The 'Current Path' projection suggests fossil fuel emissions will peak at 37.14 billion tons of CO2 equivalent per year in 2037/8 before declining to 2020 levels by 2049.
• Africa faces severe environmental degradation due to land use changes; 100 million hectares of forest were cleared over the last 30 years, and forests are projected to shrink by 14% between 2023 and 2063.
• India is projected to potentially surpass the United States to become the world's second-largest carbon emitter by mid-century due to its reliance on coal and industrial growth.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026carbon, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=03-carbon-emissions}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }