Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario

The document analyzes the trajectory of Africa's fossil fuel emissions, noting that while the continent currently contributes less than 5% of global emissions, this share is projected to rise to 12.5% by 2063 under the Current Path and 15% under the Combined scenario. It identifies a small number of countries—most notably Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa—as the primary drivers of the continent's carbon footprint, with Nigeria projected to become the continent's largest emitter by 2050.

• Africa's share of global fossil fuel emissions is projected to increase from less than 5% in 2023 to 9% in 2050 and 12.5% by 2063 under the Current Path. Under the Combined scenario, which incorporates ambitious development improvements, this contribution rises to 10.5% in 2050 and 15% by 2063.
• Four countries accounted for 66% of Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2023: South Africa (28%), Egypt (17%), Algeria (11%), and Nigeria (11%).
• Nigeria is projected to become Africa's largest fossil fuel emitter by 2050 and the world's fifth-largest by 2063, contributing 2.4% to global emissions (or 2.8% in the Combined scenario).
• South Africa is expected to reduce its carbon emissions from 125 million tons in 2023 to 34 million by 2050 on the Current Path, dropping from the largest to the third-largest emitter in Africa.
• Egypt's climate policies and NDC targets are described as 'wholly insufficient' and aligned with a 4°C global trajectory, with the country projected to be Africa's second-largest and the world's eighth-largest fossil fuel emitter by 2063 in the Combined scenario.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026africas, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }