Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario

This research paper analyzes projections for Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions up to 2063, comparing a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' that incorporates ambitious development improvements. It identifies a small number of key countries whose energy policies will determine the continent's overall contribution to global emissions.

• Africa's share of global fossil fuel emissions is projected to increase over the next several decades. Under the 'Current Path', its contribution will rise from less than 5% in 2023 to 9% in 2050 and 12.5% by 2063. In this scenario, Africa is expected to surpass the fossil fuel-related emissions of the EU in 2034, India in 2052, and the US by 2061.
• The 'Combined scenario', which assumes ambitious development improvements across eight sectors, results in higher emissions than the Current Path. Africa's global contribution would reach 10.5% in 2050 and 15% by 2063. The emissions gap between the two scenarios is 341 million tons of CO equivalent in 2050 and 638 million in 2061.
• A small group of countries dominates Africa's emissions profile. In 2023, four countries accounted for 66% of the continent's fossil fuel carbon emissions: South Africa (28%), Egypt (17%), Algeria (11%), and Nigeria (11%).
• Nigeria is projected to become the continent's largest fossil fuel emitter by 2063. In the Combined scenario, it would be the world's fourth-largest fossil fuel carbon emitter, contributing 2.8% to global emissions and 20% of Africa's total emissions.
• South Africa's emissions are expected to decline as it reduces its reliance on coal. On the Current Path, emissions from fossil fuels are projected to drop from 125 million tons in 2023 to 34 million by 2050, moving South Africa from the largest to the third-largest emitter in Africa.
• Egypt's climate policies are described as 'wholly insufficient' and aligned with a 4°C global trajectory, with expanding gas production offsetting renewable energy investments. In the Combined scenario, Egypt is projected to be Africa's second-largest and the world's eighth-largest fossil fuel carbon emitter by 2063, contributing 1.8% of global emissions.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026africas, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=04-africas-contribution}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }