AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes extreme poverty trends in Africa using a US$2.15 threshold. It highlights a divergence where the percentage of people in extreme poverty is declining, but the absolute number continues to rise due to rapid population growth, high inequality, and modest economic growth.

• While the proportion of Africans living in extreme poverty has decreased since the early 1990s, the absolute number of people in this category has steadily increased since 1960 and is projected to remain high for several years. In 2023, 29% of the population (437 million people) were extremely poor; this ratio is expected to drop to 26% by 2030 and 18% by 2043, though the absolute number will only modestly decrease to 409 million by 2043.
• Africa is projected to miss the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of reducing the extreme poverty rate to below 3% by 2030 by a significant margin. By 2030, several countries are expected to still have over 50% of their populations living in extreme poverty, specifically Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, the Central African Republic, Burundi, the DR Congo, and Lesotho.
• Extreme poverty is unevenly distributed across the continent. North Africa has effectively eliminated extreme poverty, leaving Sub-Saharan Africa as the region with the highest global burden. Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Africa had the highest extreme poverty rate in 2023 (49%), while Eastern Africa had the lowest (33%). In 2023, Madagascar had the highest national rate at 78%, with South Sudan, Burundi, Malawi, and Mozambique all exceeding 70%.
• The inability to reduce extreme poverty is linked to systemic issues including corruption, bad governance, high-income inequality, restricted access to public services, low asset ownership, and an over-reliance on natural resources. Additionally, high fertility rates limit the impact of economic growth on per capita income. The COVID-19 pandemic further worsened the situation, adding approximately 30 million people to extreme poverty in 2020.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=04-poverty

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=04-poverty.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=04-poverty |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=04-poverty}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }