AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario

The research paper presents a Gender scenario for Africa that models the developmental impact of reducing gender gaps in labour, politics, education, and health. It compares a 'business-as-usual' path against an ambitious but realistic reduction in inequalities from 2024 to 2033, maintaining those gains until 2043. The model emphasizes the bidirectional relationship between gender equality and economic growth, noting that while empowering women drives development, economic growth also creates the fiscal space to further reduce gender gaps.

• Africa has seen measurable progress in gender equality, specifically in education and labour force participation. The ratio of females' mean years of education to males' rose from 0.5 in 1960 to 0.8 in 2019, and the labour force participation gap narrowed from 23 percentage points in 1990 to 17 percentage points in 2019.
• Despite progress, significant inequalities persist: women are under-represented in politics and the labour market, face higher risks of violence, and have limited asset ownership. In sub-Saharan Africa, the gender pay gap is 30%, which is higher than the global average of 24%.
• The Gender scenario employs four clusters of interventions to model development: reducing gaps in labour force participation and wages; improving female representation in politics and decision-making (using the UNDP gender-empowerment measure); reducing education gaps from primary to tertiary levels; and improving reproductive health and rights.
• The model specifically addresses health and social barriers by increasing access to contraception and reducing maternal mortality and child marriage. In sub-Saharan Africa, approximately 25% of women of reproductive age have an unmet need for contraception, the highest proportion globally.
• The authors argue that gender gaps and economic growth have a reciprocal relationship; while female empowerment benefits development, economic growth provides the necessary fiscal space for governments to invest in the education, healthcare, and infrastructure required to reduce gender inequality.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026africa, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }