AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario

This research paper describes a 'Gender scenario' model designed to forecast the impact of reducing gender inequalities on Africa's development prospects between 2024 and 2043. The scenario compares a targeted push for gender equality against a 'Current Path' business-as-usual forecast, focusing on four primary clusters of intervention: labour force participation and wages, political representation, education access, and health and reproductive rights.

• Africa has seen measurable progress in gender equality, particularly in education and labour force participation. The ratio of females' mean years of education to males' rose from 0.5 in 1960 to 0.8 in 2019, and the gender gap in labour force participation decreased from 23 percentage points in 1990 to 17 percentage points in 2019. Additionally, child marriage prevalence fell by seven percentage points between 2009 and 2018.
• Despite progress, significant gender disparities persist across Africa. Women and girls are under-represented in politics, governance, and the labour market, where they are often concentrated in low-paying roles. In sub-Saharan Africa, the gender pay gap is 30%, which is higher than the global average of 24%.
• The proposed Gender scenario implements a ten-year push from 2024 to 2033—aligning with the African Union's Agenda 2063 second implementation plan—to reduce inequalities. The model focuses on four intervention clusters: reducing gaps in labour force participation and wages; increasing female representation in politics and decision-making (proxied by the UNDP gender-empowerment measure); improving education access from primary to tertiary levels and TVET; and enhancing reproductive rights, including increasing access to contraception and reducing maternal mortality.
• The model acknowledges that gender inequalities are deeply embedded in social and cultural norms, making full parity unlikely in the short term. Based on current progress, it is estimated that achieving full gender equality in Africa could take more than 100 years.
• The scenario uses specific proxies to model complex social issues: child marriage reduction serves as a proxy for reducing gender-based violence, and improvements in the UNDP gender-empowerment measure (GEM) serve as a proxy for female representation in politics. The model does not account for the quality of jobs, access to finance, or unpaid domestic work.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026africa, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=08-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }