The AfCFTA Scenario

The document outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. It details the specific interventions used to simulate the agreement's impact—including import tax reductions and productivity increases—and specifies the tariff phase-out timelines for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), non-LDCs, and the G6 countries. The authors characterize the scenario as an optimistic forecast that depends on political commitment and stakeholder engagement.

• The AfCFTA scenario is designed to model the agreement's role in increasing international exports and intra-Africa trade to help transform African economies toward producing higher-value services and goods.
• To simulate the impact of the AfCFTA using the International Futures (IFs) platform, the model applies four specific interventions at the individual country level: an increase in exports, an export shift based on export promotion, an increase in multifactor productivity, and a reduction in import tax.
• The scenario assumes implementation begins as early as 2026, with tariff reductions following agreed timelines for non-LDCs and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), while the G6 countries—comprising Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—have a longer 15-year phase-out period.
• The authors describe the scenario as an exceptionally optimistic forecast, noting that substantial impact depends on leaders adhering to commitments and involving businesses, labour, and other stakeholders.

APA

Chipanda, B., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The AfCFTA Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing, and Jakkie Cilliers. The AfCFTA Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The AfCFTA Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2026afcfta, author = {Chipanda, Blessing and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The AfCFTA Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }