The AfCFTA Scenario

This research paper outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. Starting in 2026, the scenario models the impact of tariff reductions and productivity increases across Africa, noting a specific 15-year phase-out period for G6 countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). The goal is to simulate how the agreement can boost intra-African trade and shift economies toward higher-value production.

• The AfCFTA is envisioned as a mechanism to increase intra-Africa trade and international exports, facilitating the transition of African economies toward producing higher-value services and goods.
• To model the impact of the AfCFTA, the International Futures (IFs) platform employs four specific country-level interventions: an increase in exports, an export shift based on export promotion, an increase in multifactor productivity, and a reduction in import tax.
• The scenario assumes AfCFTA implementation begins as early as 2026, with tariff reductions following agreed timelines for non-LDCs, Least Developed Countries (LDCs), and the G6 countries. The G6 group—comprising Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—has a negotiated 15-year phase-out period for tariff liberalisation, which is longer than the standard LDC timelines.

APA

Chipanda, B., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The AfCFTA Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing, and Jakkie Cilliers. The AfCFTA Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The AfCFTA Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2026afcfta, author = {Chipanda, Blessing and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The AfCFTA Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=10-the-afcfta-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }