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GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario for The Gambia projects a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043, nearly doubling the overall economy to US$18.5 billion. While the scenario predicts a drastic reduction in extreme poverty—leaving only 0.15% of the population below the poverty line—it also forecasts a rise in carbon emissions to 1.7 million tons, indicating a high cost of environmental degradation.
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Document type: Research paper
The Contribution of Labour, Capital and Technology to Growth
The report analyzes Africa's economic growth drivers, arguing that while labour-fueled growth is unlikely to emulate other regions due to a late demographic dividend, future growth must rely on physical capital accumulation and multifactor productivity (MFP). It highlights that for low- and lower-middle-income African countries, poor physical capital is the primary drag on growth, whereas upper-middle-income countries are constrained by poor human capital.
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Document type: Report
AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES
The document outlines a projected shift in Africa's labour market from 2023 to 2043, where a 'Combined scenario' envisions a significant decrease in informal employment from 58% to 40%. This transition is expected to be driven by a resurgence in manufacturing, digital innovation, and targeted investments in infrastructure and skills, leading to improved social protection and government revenue.
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Document type: Research paper
The AfCFTA Scenario
The document outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. It details the specific interventions used to simulate the agreement's impact—including import tax reductions and productivity increases—and specifies the tariff phase-out timelines for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), non-LDCs, and the G6 countries. The authors characterize the scenario as an optimistic forecast that depends on political commitment and stakeholder engagement.
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Document type: Research paper
Japan’s missing piece of clean power
Japan has the lowest share of clean electricity among G7 nations, with wind generating less than 1% of its power in 2022. While the 6th Strategic Energy Plan targets 59% clean power by 2030, it only allocates 5.7 GW to offshore wind, representing just 4% of the collective G7 target of 150 GW. Alternative pathways from Berkeley Lab and the Renewable Energy Institute suggest that leveraging Japan's theoretical offshore wind potential of 392 GW could enable the country to reach 80% to 90% decarbonised electricity by 2035.
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Document type: Report
Power sector futures in China
The report utilizes the REPO and E3ME-FTT:Power models to project China's power sector transition. Both models predict the eventual dominance of wind and solar power, though they differ on the specific technology mix and cost trajectories. The analysis emphasizes that market-based pricing and a robust Emission Trading System (ETS) are critical for supporting carbon neutrality goals, while highlighting the essential role of large-scale energy storage and carbon capture technologies to maintain system stability and reach net-zero emissions.
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Document type: Report
Chilling Prospects 2022
Chilling Prospects 2022 identifies that 3.66 billion people face high or medium risk from cooling access challenges, with 1.2 billion rural and urban poor at high risk. The report highlights critical gaps in food cold chains, health services, and human safety, while forecasting that achieving SDG 7.1 and SDG 1.1 could reduce the high-risk population by 36% by 2030. It advocates for a transition to sustainable, energy-efficient cooling and the implementation of National Cooling Action Plans (NCAPs) to mitigate climate impacts and protect vulnerable populations.
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Document type: Report
An Assessment of India’s Energy Choices: What it Means for the Economy, Jobs, and Energy Security
The analysis finds that renewable energy growth is positively associated with India's GDP, employment, and energy security, while helping to reduce the fiscal deficit and net energy imports. Despite these benefits, the report projects that India will likely miss its 175 GW renewable energy target by 2022, instead reaching it between 2027 and 2033 depending on the scenario. Under an optimistic scenario, renewable energy could add up to 4.52 million domestic jobs by 2042.
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Document type: Executive summary
An Assessment of India’s Energy Choices
The report analyzes the relationship between renewable energy (RE) and macroeconomic factors in India, finding that RE growth is positively associated with GDP, interest rates (call rates), and remunerative tariffs, while negatively correlated with fiscal deficits, energy imports, and unemployment. Using an ARDL model, the authors project three scenarios (business as usual, optimistic, and pessimistic) for RE capacity through 2042. They conclude that India's target of 175 GW by 2022 is overly ambitious and likely to be achieved between 2027 and 2033. The report also estimates that an optimistic scenario could add up to 4.52 million jobs by 2042 and improve India's Energy Security Index (ESI) from 0.41 to 0.58.
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Document type: Report
EUROPE’S MOBILITY IS ABOUT TO BE REWRITTEN
The authors argue that European transport policies are outdated because they assume a permanent increase in driving and flying. They suggest that the convergence of new technologies—such as autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, and shared mobility—offers a choice between a 'transport heaven' of reduced congestion and greenery, or a 'transport hell' of increased vehicle kilometers and pollution. The text advocates for a European-wide strategy that prioritizes 'mobility' (satisfying needs without necessarily changing location) over 'transport' (the physical movement of vehicles), citing the Netherlands' transition to cycling as a model for urban transformation.
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Document type: Research paper