GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper analyzes a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for The Gambia, forecasting the economic and environmental impacts of integrating 11 sectoral development scenarios by 2043. The scenario predicts significant growth in GDP per capita and a sharp reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions compared to a 'Current Path' forecast.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase The Gambia's GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043. This represents an increase of US$2,873 over the Current Path forecast and remains above the projected average of US$3,790 for low-income countries in Africa for the same year.
• Trade liberalization and agricultural production are identified as the most impactful policies for human and economic development in The Gambia, while Health/WaSH and Infrastructure are projected to have the least impact on GDP per capita by 2043. The synergistic effect of all scenarios on GDP per capita is estimated at approximately US$294 in 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is expected to significantly reduce poverty, with only 6,000 Gambians (0.15% of the population) living below the poverty line by 2043. This would lift an additional 85,000 people out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path.
• The overall size of the economy is projected to almost double by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, with an estimated GDP (MER) of US$18.5 billion compared to US$10 billion in the Current Path. The service, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors are the primary long-term contributors to GDP, with the service sector adding US$5.7 billion (an additional 0.3 percentage points to GDP) by 2043.
• Environmental costs are projected to rise under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Total carbon emissions, which were 220,000 tons in 2019, are projected to reach 1.7 million tons by 2043, exceeding the Current Path forecast of 1.3 million tons.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026gambia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }