GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario for The Gambia projects a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043, nearly doubling the overall economy to US$18.5 billion. While the scenario predicts a drastic reduction in extreme poverty—leaving only 0.15% of the population below the poverty line—it also forecasts a rise in carbon emissions to 1.7 million tons, indicating a high cost of environmental degradation.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase The Gambia's GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043, which is US$2,873 higher than the Current Path forecast and exceeds the projected average for low-income countries in Africa (US$3,790).
• Trade liberalisation and agricultural production are identified as the most impactful policies for improving economic and human development, while health/WaSH and infrastructure are expected to have the least impact on GDP per capita by 2043.
• Extreme poverty is expected to decline significantly under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, with only 6,000 Gambians (0.15% of the population) living below the poverty line by 2043, lifting an additional 85,000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path.
• The overall size of the economy is projected to almost double by 2043, reaching an estimated GDP (MER) of US$18.5 billion in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, compared to US$10 billion in the Current Path forecast.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario comes with a high environmental cost, with carbon emissions projected to rise from 220,000 tons in 2019 to 1.7 million tons by 2043, surpassing the Current Path estimate of 1.3 million tons.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026gambia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{GAMBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }