Power sector futures in China

The report utilizes the REPO and E3ME-FTT:Power models to project China's power sector transition. Both models predict the eventual dominance of wind and solar power, though they differ on the specific technology mix and cost trajectories. The analysis emphasizes that market-based pricing and a robust Emission Trading System (ETS) are critical for supporting carbon neutrality goals, while highlighting the essential role of large-scale energy storage and carbon capture technologies to maintain system stability and reach net-zero emissions.

• China's long-term climate goals include achieving carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to exceed 80% by 2060.
• The REPO model projects that wind and solar power will be the primary drivers of capacity growth, with solar capacity reaching approximately 2,750 GW and wind capacity reaching about 2,000 GW by 2060.
• According to REPO, the power sector's carbon emissions will peak around 2025 at approximately 4,350 Mt, potentially reaching negative emissions by 2060 with a total carbon absorption of about 750 Mt due to the application of BECCS.
• The REPO model estimates that the unit cost of electricity will rise gradually from 2020 to 2060, reaching 0.41 yuan/kWh by 2060, a 6% increase from 2020 levels, driven by system balance costs for renewables.
• Energy storage is projected to reach a total installed capacity of around 1,500 GW by 2060 in the REPO model, with compressed air storage expected to scale significantly to around 640 GW by 2060 for inter-seasonal needs.
• The E3ME-FTT:Power model indicates that electricity prices are lower in high-renewable (HighVRE) scenarios and under a Weighted Average Levelised Cost (WALC) pricing mechanism compared to the Merit Order Approach (MOA).
• High-renewable scenarios in the E3ME-FTT:Power model are associated with positive GDP impacts due to lower electricity prices and investment stimuli, whereas high-fossil fuel scenarios may constrain consumption and GDP.
• The two models diverge on the 2060 generation mix: FTT:Power predicts solar PV will provide 50% or more of total generation, while REPO projects solar at 22% and wind at 32%.
• The report argues that a transition from an output-based ETS to a cap-and-trade based ETS in the medium to long term would be more technologically neutral and cost-effective for achieving absolute emission reductions.
• Market reform toward economic dispatch is deemed essential to remove 'unreasonable protection' for inefficient coal-fired units and lower the cost of emission reductions.

APA

Miller-Wang, A., Zhang, H., Barbrook-Johnson, P., Zhang, Y., Vercoulen, P., Nijsse, F., Weng, Y., Sharpe, S., Mercure, J.-F., Grubb, M., & Zhang, X. (2023). Power sector futures in China. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2023IIB072-EEIST-D5-China-Country-Report-ONLINE-SINGLE-PAGES-1.pdf

Chicago

Miller-Wang, Arabella, Hongyu Zhang, Pete Barbrook-Johnson, Yixuan Zhang, Pim Vercoulen, Femke Nijsse, Yuyan Weng, et al. Power sector futures in China. Climate Strategies, 2023. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2023IIB072-EEIST-D5-China-Country-Report-ONLINE-SINGLE-PAGES-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{millerwang2023power, author = {Miller-Wang, Arabella and Zhang, Hongyu and Barbrook-Johnson, Pete and Zhang, Yixuan and Vercoulen, Pim and Nijsse, Femke and Weng, Yuyan and Sharpe, Simon and Mercure, Jean-Francois and Grubb, Michael and Zhang, Xiliang}, title = {{Power sector futures in China}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2023}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2023IIB072-EEIST-D5-China-Country-Report-ONLINE-SINGLE-PAGES-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }