AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES

This research paper describes the 'Combined scenario' for employment and labour market transformation in Africa as part of the Agenda 2063 thematic futures. It contrasts current trends of high informality and low productivity with a projected future of increased formalization, industrial resurgence, and digital transformation.

• In 2023, African employment was characterized by high levels of informality and poverty, with over 85% of employment being informal and nearly one-third of the employed population earning less than US$2.15 per day.
• The 'Combined scenario' projects a significant reduction in informal employment, forecasting a drop from 58% in 2023 to 40% by 2043, which is a marked improvement over the 'Current Path' forecast of 53% for the same year.
• The Combined scenario anticipates a manufacturing resurgence driven by investments in industrial parks, infrastructure, workforce skills, and trade integration, specifically in sectors such as agro-processing, textiles, assembly, and food processing.
• Specific national examples illustrate paths to inclusive employment: Ethiopia through industrial parks for textiles and footwear, Nigeria via fintech and creative industries, and Rwanda through ICT, logistics, and tourism.
• The transition toward formal employment is expected to provide workers with legal rights, social protection, and the ability to organize, while enabling governments to improve public service investment and tax collection.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026agenda, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }