AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES

The document outlines a projected shift in Africa's labour market from 2023 to 2043, where a 'Combined scenario' envisions a significant decrease in informal employment from 58% to 40%. This transition is expected to be driven by a resurgence in manufacturing, digital innovation, and targeted investments in infrastructure and skills, leading to improved social protection and government revenue.

• In 2023, Africa's labour market was characterized by high levels of informality, with over 85% of employment being informal and nearly one-third of employed people earning less than US$2.15 per day.
• The 'Combined scenario' projects that the share of informal employment in Africa will drop from 58% in 2023 to 40% by 2043, which is a more significant improvement than the 53% forecast under the 'Current Path'.
• A resurgence in manufacturing—specifically in textiles, assembly, food processing, and agro-processing—is envisioned as a primary driver for poverty reduction and job creation for both rural and urban populations.
• Specific national examples illustrate paths to formalization: Ethiopia through industrial parks in textiles and footwear, Nigeria via fintech and creative industries, and Rwanda through ICT, logistics, and tourism.
• The transition toward formal employment is expected to provide workers with legal rights and social protection while enabling governments to increase tax collection and improve public service investment.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026agenda, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=06-employment-labour-market-transformation}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }