Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario

The research paper projects that a 'Combined scenario'—integrating policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment—would significantly increase Africa's GDP to US$8.9 trillion by 2043 and reduce extreme poverty to 242 million people. It highlights that while low-income countries like the DR Congo and Mozambique would see the fastest growth, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance reforms are the most effective drivers of per capita income and poverty reduction across the continent.

• Under the Combined scenario, Africa's economy is projected to reach approximately US$8.9 trillion by 2043 with an average annual growth rate of 6.2%, significantly higher than the US$6.4 trillion and 4.5% growth rate projected under the Current Path.
• GDP per capita in PPP terms is expected to rise from US$4,850 in 2023 to US$6,758 by 2043 in the Combined scenario, a 147% increase. This would raise Africa's average per capita income to 28% of the world average (excluding Africa), compared to 25% in 2023.
• The Combined scenario predicts a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty, falling from 462 million people in 2023 to 242 million by 2043 (10% of the projected population), whereas the Current Path only sees a slight decrease to 441 million.
• Economic growth and poverty reduction are not uniform; low-income countries such as the DR Congo, Uganda, Mozambique, Liberia, and Rwanda are projected to experience the most rapid growth (above 8% annually) and significant poverty reduction. Conversely, upper-middle-income countries like South Africa, Algeria, and Tunisia are expected to grow more modestly due to the 'middle-income trap'.
• Among various sectoral scenarios, the AfCFTA scenario is projected to be the most beneficial for all country income groups by 2043. However, the Governance scenario is identified as the most effective for reducing extreme poverty, partly through the use of social transfers funded by taxes on skilled households.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=04-africa-development

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=04-africa-development.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=04-africa-development |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=04-africa-development}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }