Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers for the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social development of Africa by 2043 under a 'Combined scenario' compared to a 'Current Path'. The Combined scenario, which integrates policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment, projects significantly higher GDP growth, increased GDP per capita, and a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty.

• Under the Combined scenario, Africa's economy is projected to reach approximately US$8.9 trillion by 2043 with an average annual growth rate of 6.2%, outperforming the Current Path's projection of US$6.4 trillion and a 4.5% growth rate.
• The Combined scenario is expected to increase Africa's GDP per capita (in PPP terms) from US$4,850 in 2023 to US$6,758 by 2043, a 147% increase. This would raise Africa's average per capita income to 28% of the world average (excluding Africa), compared to 25% in 2023.
• Extreme poverty is projected to decline to 242 million people by 2043 under the Combined scenario—representing 10% of the projected population—compared to 441 million people under the Current Path. In 2023, approximately 462 million Africans lived in extreme poverty.
• Economic growth in the Combined scenario varies by income level: low-income countries like the DR Congo, Uganda, and Mozambique are projected to grow by over 8% annually due to gains in health, education, and agriculture. Conversely, upper-middle-income countries such as South Africa, Algeria, and Tunisia are expected to grow more modestly due to the 'middle-income trap'.
• Among different sectoral scenarios, the AfCFTA scenario is projected to be the most beneficial for all country income groups by 2043. However, at the continental level, the Governance scenario is identified as the most effective for reducing extreme poverty, partly through the use of social transfers funded by taxes on skilled households.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=04-africa-development

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=04-africa-development.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=04-africa-development |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s Development Potential in the Combined Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=04-africa-development}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }