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1,858 documents from Institute for Security Studies
ECOWAS: Conclusion
This research paper concludes that while ECOWAS has made progress in regional integration, its current development trajectory is not transformative enough to address structural challenges such as insecurity, corruption, and economic instability. The author argues that without aggressive socio-economic policy interventions, the region will fail to achieve inclusive and sustainable development by 2050.
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Document type: Research paper
Burundi Impact of sectoral scenarios on key indicators
This report analyzes the impact of various sectoral scenarios on Burundi's economy, poverty levels, and carbon emissions from 2019 to 2043. It finds that while all scenarios improve GDP per capita over the 'Current Path', the Agriculture and Governance scenarios are most effective at reducing extreme poverty, whereas the full implementation of the AfCFTA could potentially increase poverty if not supported by complementary domestic policies.
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Document type: Report
Remittances to Africa
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the scale, impact, and future projections of remittance flows to Africa. It examines how these funds support households and macroeconomic stability, while also warning of potential 'remittance traps' and 'Dutch disease' that can hinder long-term economic growth and government accountability.
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Document type: Research paper
ECCAS: Introduction
The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), established in 1983 and revised in 2019, comprises 11 member states in Central Africa. While its mandate expanded in 1998 to include peace and security alongside economic cooperation, the region continues to face challenges including low regional integration, currency diversity, and significant economic disparities, with member states ranging from low-income to nominally upper-middle-income.
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Document type: Report
Introduction: Prospects and Challenges of ECOWAS
This research paper provides an introduction to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), detailing its founding mandate, member state composition, natural resource endowments, and the current geopolitical and developmental challenges facing the region.
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Document type: Research paper
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The report forecasts that a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' would nearly double sub-Saharan Africa's economy by 2043 compared to the current path, increasing GDP per capita to US$9,798 and significantly reducing extreme poverty to 7.3%. While services and manufacturing are expected to drive the most GDP growth, the scenario also predicts an increase in carbon emissions to 892 million tons by 2043.
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Document type: Research paper
Botswana: Conclusion
This report provides a scenario-based analysis of Botswana's development trajectory from 2023 to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' of historical trends against a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated cross-sectoral reforms. While the Current Path shows moderate improvements, it is deemed insufficient to meet the goals of Vision 2036. The Combined scenario suggests that targeted investments in manufacturing, green energy, human capital, and regional trade integration can accelerate growth, reduce inequality, and transition the country into a high-income, inclusive, and knowledge-based society.
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Document type: Report
Cameroon: Conclusion and Recommendations
This report provides a forward-looking analysis of Cameroon's development trajectory through 2043, concluding that while the country has strong potential, current momentum is insufficient for rapid structural transformation. It outlines specific policy recommendations across governance, trade, manufacturing, and climate resilience to accelerate economic growth and reduce poverty.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s Population Momentum
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Africa's rapid population growth and its implications for the global labor market. It forecasts that Africa's population will reach 3.850 billion by 2100, driven by high fertility rates and population momentum, potentially making the continent the world's largest labor force by 2040.
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Document type: Research paper
Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario
This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for the Central African Republic, comparing it to a 'Current Path' forecast. The scenario integrates 11 sectoral interventions to project improvements in GDP per capita, poverty reduction, and sectoral economic contributions by 2043, while noting an increase in carbon emissions as a result of higher economic growth.
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Document type: Research paper
ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This report analyzes the projected economic and social outcomes for Angola under a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' compared to a 'Current Path' forecast. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, predicts a dramatic increase in GDP per capita and a significant reduction in extreme poverty by 2043, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions due to industrial and demographic growth.
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Document type: Report
Illicit Financial Flows
This research paper analyzes illicit financial flows (IFFs) in Africa, estimating that approximately US$89 billion leaves the continent annually. It identifies multinational commercial activities (65%) and criminal/corrupt activities (35%) as the primary drivers. The document highlights the resulting deficits in health and education spending and critiques the US as a secrecy jurisdiction. It evaluates efforts to combat IFFs through the African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF), the EITI, and the OECD/G20 BEPS framework, noting that African nations seek a higher global minimum corporate tax rate of 20%.
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Document type: Research paper
EAC DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES Annex
This document is an annex to the 'EAC Development Futures: Geographic Futures' report, providing administrative details regarding the authors, the African Futures & Innovation (AFI) program, and the open-access licensing terms for the research.
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Document type: Report
COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This report analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), integrating 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast GDP per capita, poverty levels, and carbon emissions by 2043. It highlights the synergistic effects of multi-sectoral reform, projecting significant economic growth and poverty reduction, while noting an inevitable increase in carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for North Africa, projecting economic growth, poverty reduction, and sectoral shifts by 2043. The scenario integrates 11 sectoral improvements to forecast a significant increase in GDP per capita and a reduction in extreme poverty, while noting an increase in carbon emissions.
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Document type: Research paper
BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Benin, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic and social development by 2043. The scenario predicts significant growth in GDP and a reduction in poverty compared to a 'Current Path' forecast, though it also projects a substantial increase in carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s Economic Growth Prospects
This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers of the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the relationship between demographic growth and economic prospects in Africa. It highlights that while Africa's overall economic growth is projected to outpace the rest of the world through 2050, rapid population growth limits the gains in GDP per capita, necessitating a demographic dividend and productivity improvements to narrow the global gap.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa: Introduction
This research paper provides a comprehensive geographic, political, and socio-economic introduction to Africa, detailing its physical landscape, colonial history, administrative structures, and immense cultural and linguistic diversity.
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Document type: Research paper
Burundi Combined Agenda 2063: Current Path vs scenario
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies compares Burundi's economic and social trajectory under a 'Current Path' versus a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The Combined scenario, which integrates eight sectoral pushes, projects significant growth in GDP, a reduction in extreme poverty, and structural economic transformation by 2043, albeit with an increase in carbon emissions.
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Document type: Research paper
BURUNDI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
This report details a series of scenario interventions for Burundi's development, utilizing the IFs v7.84 model to project outcomes across governance, health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, and trade. It compares potential improvements in Burundi against historical benchmarks from other African nations and forecasts Burundi's relative standing among low-income African peers by 2043.
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Document type: Report