Benin Development Futures

The report forecasts Benin's development to 2043, predicting a population increase to 21.2 million and GDP growth to US$66.3 billion under the Current Path. While GDP per capita is expected to rise to US$4,685, absolute poverty is projected to increase to 11 million people. Sectoral scenarios suggest that Free Trade and Leapfrogging have the highest potential for economic growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could double the economy to US$117.2 billion but would increase carbon emissions to 10.1 million tons.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Benin's population is projected to grow from 11.9 million in 2019 to 21.2 million by 2043, with urban residents making up 58% of the population by that date.
• The Current Path forecast predicts GDP will reach US$66.3 billion and GDP per capita will rise to US$4,685 by 2043, though this remains significantly below the projected average for lower middle-income countries in Africa (US$9,142).
• Despite economic growth, the absolute number of people living below the US$3.20 poverty line is expected to increase from 7.9 million in 2019 to 11 million by 2043 under the Current Path, as population growth outpaces development.
• Benin's energy sector is heavily dependent on imports, with approximately 85% of electricity sourced from Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria; domestic production is now exclusively renewable energy, projected to reach 0.5 million BOE by 2043.
• Carbon emissions are forecast to rise from 2.2 million tons in 2019 to 7 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, likely driven by population-led biomass use and increased industrial activity.
• The Agriculture scenario could significantly reduce poverty and increase GDP per capita to US$4,928 by 2043, lifting over one million additional people out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path.
• The Leapfrogging scenario focuses on technology and energy, projecting that electricity access would reach 80.9% of the population by 2043, compared to 68.8% in the Current Path.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the AfCFTA, is projected to increase GDP per capita to US$5,166 by 2043 and reduce the proportion of poor people to 47.1%, though it would also cause the highest increase in carbon emissions (7.8 million additional tons).
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario predicts an aggressive economic expansion to a GDP of US$117.2 billion and a reduction in poverty to 6.4 million people (31.8% of the population) by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would result in the highest environmental cost, with carbon emissions rising to 10.1 million tons by 2043.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Benin Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=current-path

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Benin Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Benin Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026benin, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Benin Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }