ISS African Futures

This report provides a detailed development forecast for Benin up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' scenario—based on existing policies—against various sectoral improvement scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, energy transition, and the potential impacts of targeted interventions in governance, education, and trade.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Benin's population is expected to grow from 11.9 million in 2019 to 21.2 million by 2043, with urbanisation increasing to 58% of the population.
• Benin's GDP is projected to reach US$66.3 billion by 2043 on the Current Path, with GDP per capita rising to US$4,685. The service sector is expected to become the primary driver of GDP, contributing US$36.6 billion (55.3% of GDP) by 2043.
• Despite economic growth, the absolute number of people living below the US$3.20 poverty line is forecast to increase from 7.9 million in 2019 to 11 million (51.9% of the population) by 2043 on the Current Path.
• Benin is highly dependent on energy imports, with approximately 85% of electricity sourced from Ghana, Câte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria. While it has shifted to producing only renewable energy since 2015, carbon emissions are still projected to rise from 2 million tons in 2019 to 7 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path.
• The Agriculture scenario suggests that adopting modern farming methods could increase crop yields to 8.2 metric tons per hectare by 2043 and reduce agricultural import dependence to 7% of total demand, lifting over one million additional people out of extreme poverty.
• The Leapfrogging scenario projects a significant increase in electricity access, reaching 80.9% of the population by 2043, compared to 68.8% on the Current Path. It also forecasts mobile broadband subscriptions to reach 152.9 per 100 people.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the AfCFTA, is projected to increase GDP per capita to US$5,166 by 2043 and reduce the proportion of poor people to 47.1%, although it would result in the highest increase in carbon emissions (an additional 7.8 million tons).
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, projects an aggressive economic expansion with GDP reaching US$117.2 billion and GDP per capita rising to US$7,421 by 2043. This scenario would reduce the number of people in poverty to 6.4 million (31.8% of the population).
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would lead to a significant increase in carbon emissions, reaching 10.1 million tons by 2043, highlighting a trade-off between economic growth and environmental degradation.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=BJ&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }