Cabo Verde Development Futures

The report projects that Cape Verde will experience significant urbanisation and economic growth by 2043, with GDP per capita rising to US$10,839 under the Current Path. While the country has high human development and political stability, it faces challenges including a high dependency on food imports (90% of food consumed is imported) and vulnerability to climate-induced flooding. The analysis explores several scenarios, finding that 'Free Trade' and 'Manufacturing/Transfers' have the highest potential to increase GDP per capita, while a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario could reduce extreme poverty to 3.6% of the population but would increase carbon emissions to 0.47 million tons by 2043. Energy projections suggest a transition toward renewables, with a goal for them to constitute 50% of total energy production by 2043.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Cape Verde is projected to see rapid urbanisation, with 73.5% of the population residing in urban areas by 2043, driven by rural droughts and the expansion of the tourism sector.
• Cape Verde maintains a high level of food import dependency, with 90% of all food consumed being imported; by 2043, demand is projected to outstrip domestic production by 0.31 million metric tons.
• The economy is heavily reliant on tourism, which directly accounted for 35% of GDP in 2015, making the country vulnerable to external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a 14.8% GDP contraction in 2020.
• Energy production is currently dominated by coal (60% in 2019), but it is projected that renewable energies will constitute 50% of total energy production by 2043.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase across all analyzed scenarios, with the Free Trade scenario causing the highest increase, resulting in 0.41 million additional tons of carbon by 2043.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates multiple policy pushes, is projected to increase GDP per capita by US$4,824 and reduce the extreme poverty rate to 3.6% (23,000 people) by 2043.
• Cape Verde has already achieved a demographic dividend, with a working-age population to dependant ratio of 1.99 in 2019, significantly higher than the lower middle-income African average of 1.32.
• The country is highly vulnerable to climate change, having been ranked as the eighth most endangered nation in 2011 due to flooding.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Cabo Verde Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/cape-verde/

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Cabo Verde Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/cape-verde/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Cabo Verde Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/cape-verde/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026cabo, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Cabo Verde Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/cape-verde/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }