Cabo Verde Development Futures

This report provides a comprehensive set of economic, demographic, and social projections for Cape Verde through 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' forecast with several thematic scenarios—including Stability, Agriculture, Education, and Free Trade—to assess their impact on GDP per capita, poverty levels, and carbon emissions. The analysis highlights the country's heavy reliance on tourism and imports, its successful rural electrification efforts, and the potential for significant growth under a combined policy agenda (Agenda 2063).

• Under the Current Path forecast, Cape Verde is projected to experience rapid urbanisation, with 73.5% of the population residing in urban areas by 2043. This trend is driven by the expansion of the tourism sector in cities and frequent droughts in rural regions.
• Cape Verde's economy is heavily dependent on tourism, which directly accounted for 35% of GDP in 2015. This reliance makes the economy vulnerable to external shocks, as evidenced by a 14.8% GDP contraction in 2020 due to COVID-19 shutdowns.
• The country faces severe food insecurity and high import dependency, with 90% of all consumed food being imported. In 2019, net agricultural imports represented 51.7% of agricultural demand, and this gap is projected to widen to 0.31 million metric tons by 2043 under the Current Path.
• Cape Verde has achieved a significant demographic dividend, with a working-age population to dependants ratio of 1.99 in 2019, which is well above the minimum threshold of 1.7 required for such a dividend to materialise.
• The country has made substantial progress in energy access, with 87.9% of the population having electricity in 2019. This is attributed to aggressive rural electrification projects supported by Luxembourg cooperation in areas like Santo Antão and São Nicolau.
• The 'Free Trade' scenario, involving the full implementation of the AfCFTA, is projected to be the most effective driver of economic growth, increasing GDP per capita to US$12,034 by 2043, although it may worsen the trade deficit to 14.4% of GDP.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario suggests that a comprehensive policy push across all sectors could increase the size of the economy to US$8.7 billion by 2043 (compared to US$5.2 billion on the Current Path) and reduce the extreme poverty rate to 3.6%.
• While carbon emissions are currently very low (0.18 million tons in 2019), they are projected to increase across all scenarios. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would result in the highest emissions at 0.47 million tons by 2043.
• The 'Manufacturing/Transfers' scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty, resulting in 16,000 fewer poor people by 2043 than the Current Path, with the number of people below the US$3.20 poverty line falling to 62,000.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Cabo Verde Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/cape-verde/

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Cabo Verde Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/cape-verde/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Cabo Verde Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/cape-verde/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026cabo, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Cabo Verde Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/cape-verde/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }