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Summary and key findings insummary:"conflict of interest"
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1,466 documents from Institute for Security Studies

  • The document details specific quantitative adjustments (multipliers) across several thematic scenarios—including governance, health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, trade (AfCFTA), and financial flows—designed to shift the DR Congo's development path from a 'Current Path' toward improved outcomes by 2043. These interventions aim to close gaps between the DR Congo and other regions, such as South America and South Asia, in areas like maternal mortality, democracy, and economic freedom.

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    Document type: Research paper

  • The report forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario—integrating 11 sectoral improvements—would significantly increase Equatorial Guinea's GDP per capita to US$49,924 by 2043, compared to US$30,522 under the Current Path. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and the AfCFTA are identified as the strongest drivers of economic growth, while the Free Trade scenario is most effective at reducing extreme poverty. However, this accelerated growth is projected to increase carbon emissions to 5.3 million tons by 2043, a 150% increase over the Current Path forecast.

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    Document type: Report

  • Libya is an upper-middle-income country in North Africa characterized by a vast desert interior and a densely populated Mediterranean coast. Its economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil, which provides over 90% of government revenues and export earnings, though output is volatile due to political instability. Since the 2011 collapse of the Gaddafi regime, the country has faced political fragmentation, recurring civil conflict, and a contested hybrid governance system with parallel institutions in the east and west. Geographically, Libya serves as a strategic transit point for migration toward Europe, a role that heavily impacts the country.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Libya
  • Mali is a low-income Sahelian nation facing severe environmental degradation and political volatility. The country is characterized by three natural zones—Sudanese, Sahelian, and Saharan—and is highly vulnerable to climate change, having experienced significant rainfall declines since the 1980s. Politically, Mali has a history of military coups and recurring rebellions, most recently leading to its withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2024 and the formation of the Confederation of Sahel States with Burkina Faso and Niger. The document also notes the presence of violent extremist groups and the shift in external relations from France toward Russia.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Mali
  • The document evaluates the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario for Lesotho, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions to drive economic growth. By 2043, this scenario is projected to increase GDP per capita to US$7,375 and reduce poverty from 59.5% (2019) to 27.7%, though it is expected to increase carbon emissions to 1.4 million tons due to ambitious growth.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: Lesotho
  • The report analyzes Malawi's development futures, noting that while a 'Combined scenario' shows GDP per capita 35% higher than the 'Current Path' by 2043, this is insufficient to reach lower-middle-income status by 2030. It highlights persistent gaps in urbanization, industrialization, and healthcare, while emphasizing the critical impact of climate variability on rain-fed agriculture. Key recommendations include expanding Special Economic Zones, adopting climate-smart agriculture, and implementing nature-based solutions for flood prevention.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Malawi
  • The document projects that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase Guinea-Bissau's GDP per capita to US$7,867 by 2043, lift 900,000 additional people out of extreme poverty, and grow the economy to US$16.4 billion. However, this growth is associated with an increase in carbon emissions to 1.2 million tons by 2043. The Agriculture and Free Trade scenarios are identified as having the greatest potential for improving development.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: Guinea-Bissau
  • The document evaluates the impact of different policy interventions on Mozambique's future. It finds that while individual sectoral scenarios like Large Infrastructure and Agriculture boost GDP per capita, a 'Combined scenario' integrating multiple sectors offers the most significant gains, potentially reducing extreme poverty from 65.1% to 40% by 2043. However, this accelerated growth is projected to increase carbon emissions to 47.6 million tons by 2043. The energy sector, dominated by gas, is expected to become the primary economic driver under the Combined scenario.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: Mozambique
  • The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario for The Gambia projects a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043, nearly doubling the overall economy to US$18.5 billion. While the scenario predicts a drastic reduction in extreme poverty—leaving only 0.15% of the population below the poverty line—it also forecasts a rise in carbon emissions to 1.7 million tons, indicating a high cost of environmental degradation.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: The Gambia
  • The report concludes that while Mauritania's macroeconomic indicators are trending upwards, growth remains heavily dependent on the extractive sector and is hindered by poor infrastructure, weak governance, and climate change risks. It recommends a holistic development strategy focusing on climate resilience, public finance efficiency, human capital investment, and economic diversification to leverage the country's resource endowments and youthful population.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Mauritania
  • The report identifies Kenya as a pivotal East African economic powerhouse with the potential for a 685% GDP increase by 2043 under a Combined scenario. It argues that implementing eight sectoral interventions could raise GDP per capita to US$10,950 and reduce extreme poverty from 64.6% in 2019 to 6.4% by 2043. To ensure sustainable and equitable growth, the document recommends strengthening anti-corruption efforts, expanding education and healthcare, investing in modern irrigation, and accelerating the transition to renewable energy through geothermal, solar, and wind projects.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: Kenya
  • The report projects that Morocco's GDP could reach US$384 billion by 2043 in a combined scenario of sectoral interventions, making it Africa's sixth-largest economy. Key growth drivers include transitions to high-value manufacturing, improvements in education and health, and the full implementation of the AfCFTA. The document recommends strategic investments in renewable energy, water management, and infrastructure to mitigate challenges like water scarcity and energy dependence.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Morocco
  • Comoros is a lower-middle-income island state characterized by a tropical climate prone to intense cyclones and a history of political instability. Its economy relies heavily on subsistence farming, fishing, and EU budgetary support, while its development is hindered by frequent coups and the compounding effects of natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: Comoros
  • Mauritania is a lower-middle-income country in Northwest Africa characterized by an arid climate, a mining-led economy, and a multi-ethnic society. While the country has transitioned toward a semi-presidential republic with peaceful leadership transitions, it continues to face challenges including corruption, restricted civil liberties, and entrenched slavery.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Mauritania
  • The report evaluates the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario for Eswatini, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions to drive economic growth and poverty reduction. By 2043, this scenario could raise GDP per capita to US$22,901 and reduce poverty from 60% in 2019 to 24.5%. While the scenario projects significant growth in the service and ICT sectors and an overall GDP increase to US$29.3 billion, it also forecasts an increase in carbon emissions to 1.4 million tons by 2043 due to the scale of economic expansion.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Eswatini
  • The document describes Ethiopia as a landlocked, low-income country in the Horn of Africa characterized by diverse topography and a complex ethnic federal system. It details the country's climatic patterns, including three annual rainfall seasons and projected temperature increases by 2030. The text also outlines Ethiopia's historical role in Pan-Africanism and its current political instability, marked by conflicts with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Army.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Ethiopia
  • The report analyzes development scenarios for Comoros, contrasting a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' of sectoral interventions. It identifies systemic barriers including corruption, poor infrastructure, and climate change, while proposing a comprehensive policy framework focusing on governance, agricultural productivity, human capital, and the mobilization of international finance to reduce poverty and expand the formal economy by 2043.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: Comoros
  • The report forecasts that Mauritius will maintain steady economic growth and a high income per capita relative to its African peers, while facing challenges from an ageing population and a high dependence on energy imports. It projects a decline in extreme poverty and a gradual increase in carbon emissions as the economy expands, despite the country's high readiness to respond to climate change.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Mauritius
  • The report projects that a Combined scenario of 11 sectoral interventions would increase Mauritius's GDP per capita by US$5,380 and its overall economy by US$7.1 billion by 2043. While the scenario accelerates the elimination of extreme poverty and reduces domestic inequality, it is also projected to result in a slight increase in carbon emissions of 0.3 million tons. The economic growth is driven primarily by the services sector, though the country faces challenges including a skilled labour shortage, corruption in offshore financial services, and low female labour force participation.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: Mauritius
  • The document forecasts that Liberia's GDP per capita will reach US$4,358 by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, driven primarily by agriculture, financial flows, and free trade. This scenario is projected to lift 2.2 million additional people out of extreme poverty and double the size of the economy to US$21.6 billion, though it will also increase carbon emissions to 2.1 million tons due to heightened economic activity.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: Liberia
Showing 81–100 of 1,466 documents