GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The document projects that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase Guinea-Bissau's GDP per capita to US$7,867 by 2043, lift 900,000 additional people out of extreme poverty, and grow the economy to US$16.4 billion. However, this growth is associated with an increase in carbon emissions to 1.2 million tons by 2043. The Agriculture and Free Trade scenarios are identified as having the greatest potential for improving development.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase Guinea-Bissau's GDP per capita to US$7,867 by 2043, which is US$3,900 higher than the Current Path forecast and US$1,365 higher than the average for low-income countries in Africa.
• The Agriculture and Free Trade scenarios are expected to have the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, while Health/WaSH and Governance scenarios are projected to have the least impact.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, an additional 900,000 people would be lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path, leaving 450,000 people (14.9% of the population) below the poverty line by 2043.
• The total GDP (MER) for Guinea-Bissau is estimated to reach US$16.4 billion by 2043 in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, representing a 123% increase over the Current Path estimate of US$7.3 billion.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is linked to higher environmental impact, with carbon emissions projected to rise from 0.12 million tons in 2019 to 1.2 million tons by 2043, exceeding the Current Path estimate of 0.78 million tons.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026guineabissau, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }