GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper presents the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Guinea-Bissau, an integrated forecast combining 11 sectoral scenarios to estimate economic and social outcomes by 2043. The scenario projects significant increases in GDP per capita and overall economic size, alongside a reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions compared to a 'Current Path' forecast.

• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Guinea-Bissau's GDP per capita is projected to reach US$7,867 by 2043, which is US$3,900 higher than the Current Path forecast and US$1,365 above the average for low-income African countries. The Agriculture and Free Trade scenarios are identified as having the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita, while Governance and Health/WaSH have the least.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is expected to significantly reduce poverty in Guinea-Bissau. By 2043, it is estimated that only 450,000 people (14.9% of the population) will live below the poverty line, meaning 900,000 more people would be lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path. This poverty rate is projected to be 10.3 percentage points lower than the average for low-income African countries.
• The overall size of the economy is projected to grow by 123% compared to the Current Path, with the estimated GDP (MER) reaching US$16.4 billion by 2043, up from a Current Path estimate of US$7.3 billion. The primary contributors to GDP will be the service, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors. Specifically, the service sector is expected to add US$4.3 billion, manufacturing US$2.2 billion, and agriculture US$1.4 billion.
• Environmental projections indicate a sharp increase in carbon emissions. From a 2019 level of 0.12 million tons, emissions are projected to rise to 1.2 million tons by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which is significantly higher than the 0.78 million tons estimated in the Current Path forecast.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026guineabissau, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{GUINEA-BISSAU DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GW&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }