ESWATINI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report outlines the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Eswatini, a forecasting model that integrates 11 sectoral interventions to remove constraints to growth. The scenario projects significant increases in GDP per capita and overall economic size by 2043, alongside a substantial reduction in poverty, though it also forecasts an increase in carbon emissions due to ambitious economic growth.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions, could increase Eswatini's GDP per capita to US$22,901 by 2043, representing an increase of US$7,739 over the Current Path forecast. The most significant individual drivers for raising GDP per capita by 2043 are improving intra-Africa trade (adding US$1,137), manufacturing (adding US$861), and leapfrogging (adding US$807), while a 'synergistic effect' from combining all interventions could add a further US$1,864.
• Implementation of the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could reduce poverty in Eswatini from 60% in 2019 to 24.5% by 2043, based on a US$3.20 benchmark for lower middle-income countries. This represents a reduction of 22.6 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast, lifting 400,000 additional people out of poverty, although 380,000 people would still live in extreme poverty by 2043.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Eswatini's total GDP is forecast to reach US$29.3 billion by 2043, a 54.2% increase over the Current Path forecast of US$19 billion. Sectoral shifts include the service sector contributing 2.6 percentage points more to GDP (US$5.5 billion difference) and the ICT sector contributing 0.9 percentage points more (US$800 million difference). While the manufacturing and agriculture sectors would contribute fewer percentage points to GDP compared to the Current Path, their absolute values would increase by US$3.7 billion and US$100 million respectively.
• Carbon emissions in Eswatini are projected to rise from 0.4 million tons in 2019 to 1.4 million tons by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. This is 0.3 million tons higher than the Current Path forecast, a result attributed to the ambitious economic growth projected in the scenario.

APA

le Roux, A. (2026). ESWATINI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

le Roux, Alize. ESWATINI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |title=ESWATINI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026eswatini, author = {le Roux, Alize}, title = {{ESWATINI DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SZ&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }