LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Liberia, forecasting the economic and social impacts of integrating 11 sectoral policy interventions by 2043. The scenario predicts significant growth in GDP per capita, a substantial reduction in extreme poverty, and a shift in the economy's sectoral composition, though it also forecasts an increase in carbon emissions due to heightened economic activity.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase Liberia's GDP per capita to US$4,358 by 2043. This represents an increase of US$1,792 over the Current Path forecast and is US$568 higher than the projected average for low-income African countries in 2043.
• Among the sectoral interventions, Agriculture is expected to have the highest impact on GDP per capita by 2043 with a contribution of US$346.6, followed by Financial Flow (US$233.3) and Free Trade (US$207). Conversely, the Education, Governance, and Health/WaSH scenarios are projected to have the least impact.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty in Liberia. By 2043, only 368,000 people (4.9% of the population) are expected to live below the poverty line, which is 2.2 million fewer people in extreme poverty compared to the Current Path forecast.
• The overall size of the economy is projected to more than double by 2043, with the estimated GDP (MER) reaching US$21.6 billion compared to the Current Path estimate of US$10.8 billion. The service, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors will be the primary contributors, with manufacturing expected to become the second largest contributor to GDP by 2038.
• Increased economic activity under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to lead to higher carbon emissions. Total emissions are expected to rise from 330,000 tons in 2019 to 2.1 million tons by 2043, exceeding the Current Path forecast of 1.5 million tons.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026liberia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }