LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The document forecasts that Liberia's GDP per capita will reach US$4,358 by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, driven primarily by agriculture, financial flows, and free trade. This scenario is projected to lift 2.2 million additional people out of extreme poverty and double the size of the economy to US$21.6 billion, though it will also increase carbon emissions to 2.1 million tons due to heightened economic activity.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a synergistic effect, is projected to increase Liberia's GDP per capita to US$4,358 by 2043. This represents an increase of US$1,792 over the Current Path forecast and is US$568 higher than the projected average for low-income African countries in 2043.
• Agriculture, Financial Flows, and Free Trade are identified as the sectors with the highest potential to improve economic development in Liberia. By 2043, the Agriculture scenario is expected to contribute US$346.6 to GDP per capita, followed by Financial Flow (US$233.3) and Free Trade (US$207). Conversely, Health/WaSH, Governance, and Education are expected to have the least impact.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty in Liberia. By 2043, only 4.9% of the population (368,000 people) would live below the poverty line, meaning 2.2 million more Liberians would be lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path.
• The overall size of the Liberian economy is projected to more than double by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, reaching an estimated GDP (MER) of US$21.6 billion, compared to US$10.8 billion in the Current Path forecast.
• Increased economic activity under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to lead to higher carbon emissions. Total emissions are expected to rise to 2.1 million tons by 2043, compared to 1.5 million tons in the Current Path forecast and 330,000 tons in 2019.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026liberia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{LIBERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }