EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report analyzes economic and social development projections for Equatorial Guinea up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast with a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The latter scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, predicts significantly higher GDP per capita, a larger overall economy, and a reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario predicts a substantial increase in GDP per capita for Equatorial Guinea by 2043, reaching US$49,924, which is nearly 64% higher than the Current Path forecast of US$30,522. The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario is identified as having the largest individual impact on GDP per capita, increasing it by 7.6% above the Current Path to US$32,835, followed by Free Trade and Infrastructure scenarios.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the total size of Equatorial Guinea's economy is projected to be US$92.5 billion by 2043, representing a 72% increase over the Current Path forecast of US$53.83 billion. The service sector is expected to be the dominant economic sector, with its contribution to GDP in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario being US$26.4 billion larger than the Current Path forecast.
• Extreme poverty is projected to decline more significantly under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario than the Current Path. By 2043, the extreme poverty rate (using a US$1.90 threshold) is expected to be 60% (1.434 million people) in the Combined scenario, compared to 73.3% (1.808 million people) in the Current Path. The Free Trade scenario is noted as having the largest effect on reducing extreme poverty.
• Carbon emissions in Equatorial Guinea are expected to rise as the economy grows. While the Current Path forecast predicts emissions will reach 2.17 million tons by 2043, the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects emissions will increase to 5.3 million tons, an increase of nearly 150%.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026equatorial, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }