EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario—integrating 11 sectoral improvements—would significantly increase Equatorial Guinea's GDP per capita to US$49,924 by 2043, compared to US$30,522 under the Current Path. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and the AfCFTA are identified as the strongest drivers of economic growth, while the Free Trade scenario is most effective at reducing extreme poverty. However, this accelerated growth is projected to increase carbon emissions to 5.3 million tons by 2043, a 150% increase over the Current Path forecast.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to increase Equatorial Guinea's GDP per capita to US$49,924 by 2043, which is nearly 64% higher than the Current Path forecast of US$30,522.
• Among the individual sectoral scenarios, manufacturing, infrastructure, and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are the most significant drivers of GDP per capita growth. The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario has the highest impact, raising GDP per capita to US$32,835 by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is expected to reduce the extreme poverty rate (using the US$1.90 threshold) to 60% by 2043, compared to 73.3% in the Current Path forecast. The Free Trade scenario is the most effective single intervention for poverty reduction, potentially lowering the extreme poverty rate to 70.9%.
• The service sector is projected to be the dominant part of the economy, with its contribution to GDP increasing by US$26.4 billion by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario compared to the Current Path.
• While Equatorial Guinea currently has low net carbon emissions due to its forest area, the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would lead to a significant increase in emissions, reaching 5.3 million tons by 2043, which is nearly 150% higher than the Current Path forecast.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026equatorial, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{EQUATORIAL GUINEA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }