LESOTHO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Lesotho, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions to forecast economic growth, poverty reduction, and carbon emissions by 2043 compared to a 'Current Path' forecast.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral interventions, could increase Lesotho's GDP per capita to US$7,375 by 2043, representing an increase of US$2,135 over the Current Path forecast.
• Among the specific interventions, improving intra-Africa trade is projected to have the highest impact on GDP per capita by 2043, adding US$413 above the Current Path, followed by infrastructure (US$253) and stability/investment inflows (US$154). The least impact is expected from Financial Flows (US$58.9) and Health/WaSH (US$53.4).
• Implementation of the Combined Agenda 2063 measures could reduce Lesotho's poverty rate from 59.5% in 2019 to 27.7% by 2043, a reduction of 17.5 percentage points compared to the Current Path, potentially lifting an additional 360,000 people out of extreme poverty.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Lesotho's total GDP is forecast to reach US$12.3 billion by 2043, a 62% increase over the Current Path forecast of US$7.6 billion. This growth is accompanied by an increase in carbon emissions, projected to reach 1.4 million tons by 2043, which is 0.2 million tons higher than the Current Path forecast.
• The sectoral composition of the economy by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario shows the service sector contributing 3 percentage points more to GDP (US$2.9 billion difference) and agriculture contributing 0.1 percentage points more (US$180 million difference) compared to the Current Path. Conversely, the manufacturing sector is projected to be 1.9 percentage points below the Current Path, despite an absolute contribution of US$800 million.

APA

le Roux, A. (2026). LESOTHO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

le Roux, Alize. LESOTHO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |title=LESOTHO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026lesotho, author = {le Roux, Alize}, title = {{LESOTHO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LS&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }