DR CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper outlines a series of scenario interventions for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) using the IFs (Integrated Futures System) model. It details specific multipliers and targets across governance, health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, trade (AfCFTA), and financial flows to project development trajectories from 2024 to 2043, culminating in a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario'.

• Governance interventions aim to improve democracy, economic freedom, transparency, and regulatory quality by 2043. Specifically, democracy is projected to improve by 18.6% and economic freedom by 14.5% above the Current Path forecast, while government transparency is expected to improve by 26% and effectiveness by 21.2%.
• Health and demographic interventions target a significant reduction in mortality and an increase in contraceptive use. Maternal mortality is projected to drop to 19.3 per 100,000 live births by 2043 in the scenario, compared to 27.1 in the Current Path forecast. Contraceptive use is projected to increase by 16.3 percentage points above the Current Path by 2043.
• The education scenario applies multipliers to increase intake, transition, and graduation rates across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels, as well as improving the quality of primary and secondary education by a factor of 1.2.
• Agricultural interventions focus on increasing yields (multiplier of 1.6), expanding land equipped for irrigation (multiplier of 1.5), and reducing production and transport loss rates (both multipliers of 0.8).
• The Large Infrastructure/Leapfrogging scenario targets a 3x multiplier for ICT mobile broadband and a 1.5x multiplier for ICT broadband, alongside increasing rural electricity access (multiplier of 1.27) and urban electricity access (multiplier of 1.04).
• Under the AfCFTA scenario, multifactor productivity growth is increased by an average of about 20 percentage points relative to the Current Path forecast between 2026 and 2035. The scenario also includes export multipliers for manufacturing and agriculture (1.22), services (1.2), and ICT and materials (1.1).
• Financial flow interventions propose increasing worker remittances (1.1 multiplier), foreign aid receipts (1.15 multiplier), and portfolio investment stocks (1.5 multiplier).

APA

Chipanda, B. (2026). DR CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CD&topic=06-interventions

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing. DR CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CD&topic=06-interventions.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |title=DR CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CD&topic=06-interventions |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2026congo, author = {Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{DR CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CD&topic=06-interventions}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }