MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report projects that a Combined scenario of 11 sectoral interventions would increase Mauritius's GDP per capita by US$5,380 and its overall economy by US$7.1 billion by 2043. While the scenario accelerates the elimination of extreme poverty and reduces domestic inequality, it is also projected to result in a slight increase in carbon emissions of 0.3 million tons. The economic growth is driven primarily by the services sector, though the country faces challenges including a skilled labour shortage, corruption in offshore financial services, and low female labour force participation.

• The Combined scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to increase Mauritius's GDP per capita by US$5,380 by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast, representing an 18.5% increase. The 'Free Trade scenario' is identified as having the largest individual impact on GDP per capita, increasing average incomes by US$1,003 by 2043.
• Under the Combined scenario, the Mauritian economy is projected to be 26% larger by 2043, an increase of US$7.1 billion. This growth is heavily concentrated in the services sector, which is projected to be US$6.7 billion larger than in the Current Path forecast, while the manufacturing and ICT sectors are expected to see more muted growth.
• The Combined scenario is projected to accelerate the elimination of extreme poverty (defined as US$5.50 per day) by one year and reduce the poverty rate by 0.5 percentage points by 2043. Additionally, domestic inequality is projected to decline, with the Gini index score decreasing from 0.36 in 2019 to 0.31 by 2043.
• Economic growth under the Combined scenario is expected to lead to a slight increase in carbon emissions, with Mauritius projected to emit 0.3 million tons more carbon by 2043 than under the Current Path forecast. However, the country's emissions growth is slower than the rest of Africa, placing it 42nd on the continent by 2043.
• Despite its status as a highly developed country with a diversified economy and positive health and education outcomes, Mauritius faces several systemic challenges: a shortage of skilled labour, allegations of corruption in the offshore financial services sector, low levels of FDI inflows, and low female labour force participation.

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026mauritius, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }