MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Mauritius, evaluating the cumulative impact of 11 sectoral scenarios on the country's GDP, poverty levels, and economic structure by 2043 compared to a 'Current Path' forecast.

• The Combined scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to increase Mauritius' GDP per capita by US$5,380 by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast, representing an 18.5% increase. Among the individual scenarios, Free Trade is expected to have the largest impact, increasing average incomes by US$1,003 by 2043, followed by Manufacturing/Transfers and Financial Flows.
• Under the Combined scenario, the Mauritian economy is projected to be 26% larger by 2043, an increase of US$7.1 billion. This growth is driven primarily by the services sector, which is projected to be US$6.7 billion larger than in the Current Path forecast and add 4.8 percentage points more to GDP. In contrast, the manufacturing and ICT sectors are projected to see decreases of 2.4 and 1.7 percentage points respectively in their contribution to GDP.
• Mauritius is expected to eliminate extreme poverty (defined as US$5.50 per day) by 2036 under the Current Path forecast; the Combined scenario would accelerate this by one year and reduce the poverty rate by 0.5 percentage points by 2043. Domestic inequality is also projected to decline, with the Gini index score falling from 0.36 in 2019 to 0.31 by 2043.
• Despite economic gains, the Combined scenario is projected to result in an increase of 0.3 million tons of carbon emissions by 2043 compared to the Current Path. However, Mauritius' emissions growth is slower than other African nations, placing it 42nd on the continent by 2043.
• Mauritius faces several complex challenges as a highly developed country, including a shortage of skilled labor resulting from the transition away from low-skilled manufacturing and agriculture, low levels of FDI inflows, gender inequality (specifically low female labor force participation), and allegations of corruption within the offshore financial services sector.

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026mauritius, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{MAURITIUS DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }