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North Africa possesses significant solar and wind potential, with Egypt and Morocco emerging as the region's largest renewable energy markets. While Egypt's power sector is dominated by gas and Morocco's by coal, both are aggressively expanding their renewable capacities through policy shifts and international investment. Egypt has seen rapid solar growth, exemplified by the Benban solar farm, while Morocco has focused on onshore wind and concentrated solar power, aiming to become a global green hydrogen exporter by 2050.

The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) highlights the need for integrated planning to manage synergies and trade-offs between the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The briefing presents the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) as a unique open-access, quantitative, and prospective tool capable of analyzing both Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and SDGs. SEI's Initiative on Integrated Climate and Development Planning has expanded LEAP with extensions for macroeconomic impacts, health, agriculture, and land use, which have been applied in 16 countries to quantify the co-benefits of climate action.

The document details the re-accreditation reviews for three international entities: the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). All three entities are recommended for re-accreditation without conditions. ADB and EBRD are recommended for 'large' project sizes and 'high risk' (Category A/I-1) environmental and social (E&S) risk categories. UNEP is recommended for an upgrade to 'medium' project size and maintains a 'medium risk' (Category B/I-2) E&S category. The assessments cover fiduciary standards, E&S safeguards, gender policies, and the entities' overall climate portfolios, noting that all three have aligned their strategies with the Paris Agreement and GCF's 2020–2023 Strategic Plan.

The annex outlines the technical specifications for forecasting Tunisia's development to 2040. It details data replacements from sources like UNICEF and the National Statistics Bureau, and specifies interventions across four scenarios: a common baseline, 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'. These interventions target economic freedom, corruption, education quality, ICT infrastructure, renewable energy, and carbon taxation.

The author contends that free ETS allowances violate the 'polluter pays' principle and have failed to reduce emissions in the EU cement industry, which saw gross CO2 emissions rise from 103 million to 108 million tonnes between 2013 and 2019. The text asserts that the cement industry gained approximately €3.5 billion in 'over allocation' profits following the 2008 recession, which were invested in plants outside Europe rather than in Best Available Techniques (BAT) within the EU. Consequently, the author calls for the full implementation of CBAM and the complete phase-out of free allowances by the end of the decade to ensure a level playing field and meet the goals of the Fit for 55 package.

The briefing reports that Arab nations are rapidly expanding renewable energy, with current combined solar and wind capacity exceeding 12 GW. It identifies Egypt and the UAE as current leaders, while Oman, Morocco, and Algeria are emerging as major players with ambitious future projects. The region is increasingly focusing on giant-scale projects and green hydrogen production for export to Europe, with some projects, like Oman's 'Al Wusta', aiming for world-leading storage capacities.

The Arabic-speaking region is experiencing a renewables boom, with over 73 GW of utility-scale solar and wind projects in development. Led by countries like Oman, Morocco, and Algeria, the region is shifting toward mega-projects driven by green hydrogen production and transcontinental energy exports. While Egypt and the UAE are current leaders in operating capacity, emerging leaders are rapidly expanding their pipelines to meet collective regional targets.

The MENA region is well-positioned to produce zero-carbon fuels due to its abundant solar, wind, and hydrocarbon resources, as well as existing industrial infrastructure. While 'green' hydrogen (from renewables) and 'blue' hydrogen (from natural gas with carbon capture and storage) are both viable, the report argues that hydrocarbon-derived fuels could provide a lower-cost catalytic role in scaling the market. However, significant barriers exist, including a lack of meaningful demand beyond industrial users, the absence of carbon pricing or regulatory requirements to reduce emissions, and a lack of common certification schemes for lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. The report recommends regional coordination, the development of fuel-neutral procurement policies, and the establishment of comprehensive regulatory frameworks for carbon management to attract investment and ensure environmental integrity.

The document examines the link between resource-intensive lifestyles of the global rich and environmental degradation, noting that the world has been in 'global ecological overshoot' since 1970. It identifies housing, transport, and food as the primary drivers of lifestyle emissions and proposes a multi-pronged policy approach to shift societal norms. The authors emphasize that a 'just transition' is necessary to avoid marginalizing local communities and to prevent 'neo-consumerism' where green products simply replace unsustainable ones without reducing overall consumption.

The document examines the relationship between climate change and conflict in Africa, asserting that climate change functions as a 'risk multiplier' that exacerbates existing political, social, and economic tensions. It highlights that while some regions like the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin are particularly vulnerable, the path from climate impact to violence is indirect, often mediated by resource scarcity, forced migration, and institutional weakness. The report calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments and for African nations to adopt evidence-based, community-informed adaptation strategies that are sensitive to local conflict dynamics to prevent future instability.

The report reviews 42 NDCs to identify national priorities for advanced low-emission technologies. It finds that 14 jurisdictions include carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), 16 include low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia, and 11 prioritize nuclear energy. The analysis highlights a mix of developed and developing nations seeking these technologies, with some relying on international financial and technological support for implementation.

The document explores the complex, indirect link between climate change and violent conflict in Africa, emphasizing that while climate change is a 'risk multiplier', it does not cause conflict in a simple cause-and-effect manner. It highlights regional examples from North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and Southern Africa, noting that vulnerability is often tied to existing institutional weaknesses and social inequalities. The author calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments and for African states to prioritize evidence-based, community-informed adaptation measures that account for local conflict dynamics.

The document examines the rising debt accumulation in Africa since 2010, noting a shift from traditional creditors to emerging economies like China and private bondholders. It analyzes how the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated vulnerabilities, and argues that existing relief initiatives like the DSSI and Common Framework are insufficient because they often exclude private creditors and lack binding legal frameworks. The authors advocate for a statutory Sovereign Debt Restructuring mechanism and the adoption of UN-led principles to ensure transparency and fairness.

The South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) outlines a framework to localise the wind, solar PV, and battery energy storage value chains. It argues that localising 70% of components and 90% of Balance of Plant (BoP) and Operations and Maintenance (O&M) could create 36,500 direct jobs and contribute R420 billion to GDP by 2030. The plan emphasizes the need for market certainty through consistent public procurement and the transition to a points-based local content scoring system to incentivize high-value manufacturing over simple CAPEX spend. It specifically targets 'Just Transition hotspots' like Mpumalanga to pivot coal-sector workers into the green economy.

The document identifies a substantial increase in protests in the Global South after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, driven by food and energy insecurity. Analyzing ACLED data, the authors found food protests in 32 countries and fuel protests in 37 countries. While many protests are isolated, in some nations—such as Paraguay, Guatemala, and Peru—these grievances constituted a significant portion of all unrest events. The report argues that such protests serve as warnings of household hardship and can lead to severe political consequences, citing the flight of Sri Lanka's president as an example.

The document examines Russia's soft-power strategy in Africa, noting that while Russia is primarily associated with hard power, it leverages Soviet-era legacies, education, and anti-Western narratives to attract African elites and populations. It identifies key strengths in the promotion of multipolarity and traditional values, while highlighting limitations such as insufficient financial resources and the mixed results of vaccine diplomacy.

The commentary assesses the challenges of the African Union (AU) and European Union (EU) partnership, noting that while common interests exist, translating them into impact remains difficult. It calls for a shift from a donor-recipient model to one based on African ownership and private sector engagement. Key areas for cooperation include a just green transition that supports African industrialisation, coordinated health systems for local pharmaceutical manufacturing, and technical support for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The authors emphasize that the EU must recognize global climate injustice and provide sufficient financing to ensure African economies benefit from the green transition.

The report finds that while updated NDCs show increased country ownership, better alignment with national planning processes like National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and a higher number of prioritized actions, most of these actions remain implementation-unready due to a lack of clear indicators, costs, and time frames. It highlights a general lack of understanding and explicit planning for transformative adaptation and a limited operationalization of 'Loss and Damage' concepts within national contexts.

The report analyzes Egypt's path to 2050, highlighting critical risks from rapid population growth (projected to reach 150 million) and severe water shortages expected by 2025. It identifies systemic economic issues, including a large informal sector and high youth unemployment, alongside health crises driven by non-communicable diseases. Through the International Futures (IFs) platform, the authors simulate seven sectoral interventions—covering demography, economy, governance, energy, health, education, and agriculture—concluding that a combined policy push could nearly double the economy's size and significantly reduce extreme poverty by 2050.

The document argues that Africa is well-positioned to become a major global hub for green hydrogen due to its abundant renewable energy potential, strategic location, and existing infrastructure. It examines global strategies from the EU, Australia, and Chile, and highlights specific projects in South Africa, Namibia, Mauritania, and Morocco. The authors recommend that the G20 provide targeted financing for infrastructure, facilitate technology transfers for local value addition, and help establish stable offtake agreements and harmonised regulatory standards to prevent deepening energy insecurity in Africa.