The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach

This report by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the complex relationship between climate change and violent conflict in Africa. It argues that while climate change acts as a 'risk multiplier' that can exacerbate existing political, social, and economic tensions, the link to violence is indirect and highly contextual. The document emphasizes the need for conflict-sensitive climate adaptation strategies, particularly in fragile contexts, and calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments to support the Global South.

• Climate change functions as a 'risk multiplier' in Africa, meaning it has the potential to worsen existing problems and undermine human security, though the link to violent conflict is often indirect and complex.
• Climate-driven security threats manifest through various pathways, including extreme weather events like floods and droughts, which can lead to infrastructure failure, land degradation, forced migration, and resource scarcity.
• There is a significant imbalance in climate responsibility and impact; Africa has contributed very little to anthropogenic climate change—with per capita greenhouse gas emissions roughly one-tenth of those in OECD countries—yet it remains one of the most vulnerable regions.
• In North Africa, climate factors may have contributed to the 2011 Arab Spring through the 'food–water–energy nexus,' where droughts in Russia and China (2010–2011) led to higher food prices and instability in the region.
• The SADC region is disproportionately affected by weather-related disasters, having experienced over one-third of the continent's such events in the last 40 years, impacting 177 million people and causing $14 billion in damages.
• In South Africa, climate change is causing a drier climate and extreme water scarcity, as seen in the 2018 Western Cape drought and the 2021 water crisis in Nelson Mandela Bay, though direct water-related violence has been minimal.
• Effective climate adaptation in Africa must be evidence-based, tailored to the specific needs of affected communities, and implemented using a conflict-sensitive approach to avoid exacerbating existing destabilizing factors.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2022). The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-climate-conflict-nexus-in-africa-a-conflict-sensitive-approach/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach. 2022. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-climate-conflict-nexus-in-africa-a-conflict-sensitive-approach/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach |date=29 April 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-climate-conflict-nexus-in-africa-a-conflict-sensitive-approach/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2022climateconflict, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-climate-conflict-nexus-in-africa-a-conflict-sensitive-approach/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }