The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach

The document examines the relationship between climate change and conflict in Africa, asserting that climate change functions as a 'risk multiplier' that exacerbates existing political, social, and economic tensions. It highlights that while some regions like the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin are particularly vulnerable, the path from climate impact to violence is indirect, often mediated by resource scarcity, forced migration, and institutional weakness. The report calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments and for African nations to adopt evidence-based, community-informed adaptation strategies that are sensitive to local conflict dynamics to prevent future instability.

• Climate change acts as a 'risk multiplier' in Africa, meaning it has the potential to worsen existing problems and undermine human security, though the link to violent conflict is complex and often indirect.
• Climate impacts in Africa manifest through changes in temperature and precipitation or extreme weather events like floods and droughts, which can lead to infrastructure issues, land degradation, forced migration, and resource scarcity.
• There is a significant imbalance in climate responsibility and impact, as Africa's per capita greenhouse gas emissions are approximately one-tenth of those in OECD countries, despite the continent being highly vulnerable.
• In North Africa, climate-related food insecurity—specifically price hikes and shortages linked to the food-water-energy nexus—is suggested to have contributed to the destabilisation that led to the 2011 Arab Spring.
• In East Africa, specifically Kenya, research indicates that the link between drought-induced resource scarcity and violence is not a simple cause-and-effect relationship, as some evidence suggests raiders may prefer to attack during wet years due to better cover and animal health.
• The SADC region has been severely impacted by weather-related disasters, affecting 177 million people and causing $14 billion in damages over the last 40 years, yet member states have not prioritised the implementation of adaptation measures.
• In South Africa, while extreme water scarcity in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape has not led to widespread water-related violence, there is a need to investigate how droughts affect the dynamics of existing violent service delivery protests.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2022). The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-climate-conflict-nexus-in-africa-a-conflict-sensitive-approach/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach. 2022. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-climate-conflict-nexus-in-africa-a-conflict-sensitive-approach/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach |date=29 April 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-climate-conflict-nexus-in-africa-a-conflict-sensitive-approach/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2022climateconflict, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The Climate-Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-climate-conflict-nexus-in-africa-a-conflict-sensitive-approach/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }