The Climate–Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach

The document explores the complex, indirect link between climate change and violent conflict in Africa, emphasizing that while climate change is a 'risk multiplier', it does not cause conflict in a simple cause-and-effect manner. It highlights regional examples from North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and Southern Africa, noting that vulnerability is often tied to existing institutional weaknesses and social inequalities. The author calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments and for African states to prioritize evidence-based, community-informed adaptation measures that account for local conflict dynamics.

• Climate change functions as a 'risk multiplier' in Africa, meaning it exacerbates existing problems rather than acting as a direct, simple cause of violent conflict. The relationship is described as 'highly complex, contextual and often indirect', where climate impacts like droughts and floods interact with political, economic, and social risks.
• In North Africa, climate-related food and water insecurity may have contributed to the 2011 Arab Spring. Specifically, droughts in Russia and China between 2010 and 2011 likely increased food prices and destabilized the region, coinciding with a period of extreme drought from 2006 to 2010.
• Research on the climate-conflict nexus in East and West Africa indicates that violence linked to resource scarcity is not a direct result of the scarcity itself, but depends heavily on the power dynamics regarding who controls those resources.
• Southern Africa is one of the most impacted regions globally despite contributing little to anthropogenic climate change. In the last 40 years, the SADC region has seen over one-third of Africa's weather-related disasters, affecting 177 million people and causing $14 billion in damages.
• In South Africa, while extreme water scarcity in Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay has not led to widespread water-related violence, there is a potential link between droughts and the increase in violent service delivery protests. In 2018, national protests rose to 237 from 173 in 2017, with the Eastern Cape (20%) and Western Cape (17%) being the largest contributors.
• The document recommends that climate adaptation in Africa must be 'conflict-sensitive', particularly in fragile contexts, and should be informed by the affected communities to ensure measures are tailored to contextual needs.

APA

FREEDBERG, J. (2022). The Climate–Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Policy-Brief-262-freedberg.pdf

Chicago

FREEDBERG, JULIA. The Climate–Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2022. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Policy-Brief-262-freedberg.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=FREEDBERG |first1=JULIA |title=The Climate–Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=April 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Policy-Brief-262-freedberg.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{freedberg2022climateconflict, author = {FREEDBERG, JULIA}, title = {{The Climate–Conflict Nexus in Africa: A Conflict-Sensitive Approach}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Policy-Brief-262-freedberg.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }