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The 2026 wildfire season has seen record-breaking burn areas, with roughly 579,000 square miles burned globally in the first four months. This trend is driven by a powerful El Niño, hydroclimate 'whiplash', and the expansion of fires into previously immune regions. These conditions have led to over 110 military deployments across 49 countries between January and July 2026, straining defense priorities and threatening critical infrastructure. The document analyzes different military response models—ranging from Spain's dedicated standing unit (UME) to Indonesia's integrated civilian-military approach—and recommends expanding collaborative models, investing in joint training, and building international interoperability to manage wildfires as a standing security challenge.

Africa possesses immense untapped ocean-based renewable energy potential, particularly in offshore wind, which could provide over USD 1 trillion in economic benefits and millions of jobs. While current deployment is minimal, tapping just 5% of the continent's 6,750 GW offshore wind potential could more than double its current power generation capacity and meet all new electricity demand through 2040. Realising this potential requires significant investment in infrastructure and policy frameworks, as Africa currently receives less than 2% of global renewable energy investment.

The report argues that reliance on fossil fuels creates unstable government revenues, locks countries into outdated infrastructure, and exposes them to stranded asset risks as global energy systems shift. It categorizes African economies into export-dominant, import-dependent, and dual-role types, noting that no single transition pathway fits all. To mitigate these risks, the document advocates for diversification into manufacturing, agro-processing, digital services, and the domestic processing of transition minerals. It outlines a phased transition timeline from 2026 to beyond 2045, emphasizing that domestic governance reforms must be supported by international cooperation to reduce the 'African premium' on borrowing costs and improve technology access.

The document outlines a comprehensive approach to developing adaptation indicators, emphasizing that they must be grounded in a Theory of Change (ToC) and national context rather than solely in global frameworks. It details a 10-step process (grouped into design, implementation, and learning phases) to move from clarifying objectives to institutionalizing data collection and conducting regular reviews. The guide highlights the importance of using a mix of quantitative and qualitative indicators, ensuring gender and social inclusion (GESI) through data disaggregation, and piloting systems before full-scale rollout to ensure feasibility and data quality.

The report projects Morocco's GDP to reach US$253.4 billion by 2043 on its current path, with potential to reach US$384 billion in a combined scenario. While the country benefits from a demographic window of opportunity and a shift toward high-value manufacturing, it faces significant challenges including severe water stress, heavy energy import dependence, and a large informal economy. Key growth drivers identified include the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), governance reforms, and strategic investments in education and infrastructure.

The document introduces Morocco's geography, noting its unique position as the only African country with both Atlantic and Mediterranean coastlines and a land border with the European Union. It outlines the country's political structure as a unitary semi-constitutional monarchy and details territorial disputes regarding Western Sahara and Spanish enclaves. Finally, it notes that Morocco faces severe climate change risks, specifically increasing temperatures and decreased rainfall.

The report projects that Morocco's GDP could reach US$384 billion by 2043 in a combined scenario of sectoral interventions, making it Africa's sixth-largest economy. Key growth drivers include transitions to high-value manufacturing, improvements in education and health, and the full implementation of the AfCFTA. The document recommends strategic investments in renewable energy, water management, and infrastructure to mitigate challenges like water scarcity and energy dependence.

The document analyzes remittance flows in Africa, noting that in 2023, gross inflows reached approximately US$90 billion. While remittances provide critical household support and macroeconomic stability, the authors warn of a 'remittance trap' and 'Dutch disease' that can hinder long-term economic growth. The paper highlights the use of diaspora bonds in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria to fund infrastructure, and forecasts that net inflows to Africa will likely increase to US$94 billion by 2043, although their share of GDP is expected to decline.

The report analyzes Africa's progress toward a demographic dividend, noting that most of the continent is in the early stages of this transition. While 11 countries have already entered a demographic window of opportunity, most others will do so much later, with some regions not reaching the critical 1.7:1 worker-to-dependant ratio until the mid-21st century. The author argues that realizing this dividend requires simultaneous improvements in fertility rates, health, education, and employment systems.

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly increase North Africa's GDP per capita and total GDP by 2043, with the most substantial gains driven by free trade under AfCFTA, manufacturing, and leapfrogging. While the scenario predicts a sharp decline in extreme poverty—particularly in Mauritania and Egypt—it also forecasts a 17% increase in carbon emissions compared to the Current Path, primarily driven by Egypt and Algeria.

The document argues for a global debt restructuring mechanism to replace the voluntary and often delayed processes of current frameworks. It suggests that such a mechanism should be housed closer to debtor nations, be linked to the African Union (AU) and African financial institutions, and be grounded in principles of fiscal legitimacy and human rights. To overcome political resistance, the brief recommends that African states form a 'Debtors Club' and transition to the African Credit Rating Agency to reduce reliance on unregulated US-based agencies.

Africa faces a significant infrastructure deficit, with an annual funding shortfall of US$68–108 billion. The report examines the role of the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), the potential of domestic capital—estimated at over US$1.1 trillion—and the challenges of public-private partnerships. It highlights that up to 90% of projects fail before financial close due to poor early-stage preparation, arguing for better project bankability and risk-sharing instruments to attract private investment.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fertiliser supply shock that threatens Nigerian food security by increasing agricultural production costs and food prices. Despite record domestic urea production in 2024, Nigeria remains vulnerable due to the export of most urea and a continued reliance on imported blending materials from Russia, Morocco, and China. These external shocks compound existing internal strains, including regional insecurity and infrastructure gaps, disproportionately affecting smallholder farmers who cannot absorb rising costs. The document argues for a pivot toward emergency procurement, improved trade finance, and expanded domestic blending capacity to build long-term resilience.

The report examines the African Union's (AU) efforts to create a coherent foreign policy framework to navigate a fragmented international order, while highlighting the need for deeper economic integration similar to the EU. It details the evolving threat of Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Lake Chad Basin and the emerging extremist hub in the Borgu-Kainji axis. Additionally, it argues for a youth-focused approach to combat transnational organized crime, citing the rise of cybercrime and drug trafficking in West Africa. Finally, it outlines Burundi's priorities as AU chair, emphasizing water security, youth empowerment, and the urgent need for internal financial autonomy to ensure political sovereignty.

The document analyzes the stagnation of African agricultural productivity, attributing it to historical factors like slavery, colonialism, and a lack of tenure reform. It contrasts a 'Current Path' forecast—characterized by increasing food import dependence and low yields—with an 'Agriculture scenario' where targeted interventions in AgTech, irrigation, and soil health lead to significant poverty reduction and GDP growth. The report emphasizes the need for food self-sufficiency and value addition within Africa over a reliance on raw commodity exports.

The document forecasts that achieving full gender equality by 2043 would significantly boost Africa's economy, increasing GDP by US$1 trillion compared to the current path and lifting 80 million more people out of extreme poverty. The most substantial gains are projected for North Africa and specific countries like Egypt and Nigeria, though the extent of the benefit depends on a country's economic structure and population growth.

The document analyzes the strategic interests of the EU and Indonesia in Africa's critical raw materials sector, arguing that their differing strengths—the EU's financial and regulatory capacity and Indonesia's downstream industrialisation experience—could be combined through triangular cooperation to support African development and reduce mutual dependence on China.

The document demonstrates how banks can move beyond high-level corporate ambition assessments by using bottom-up, asset-level data to project emissions trajectories. Using ArcelorMittal as a case study, it shows that comparing these projections against company targets and global/regional transition pathways reveals 'execution gaps' and exposure to transition risks. This 'transition intelligence' allows sustainability, risk, and front-office teams to identify specific technology lock-in risks and structure tailored transition-finance products.

Ghana faces a critical juncture where economic recovery is threatened by a fragile, high-carbon energy sector and widespread illegal mining. The energy sector is characterized by high debt, a heavy reliance on thermal generation, and a lack of renewable energy investment. Simultaneously, illegal mining (galamsey) causes severe deforestation and water pollution, threatening food security and the viability of hydropower. The document proposes a transition toward sustainable growth through competitive solar auctions, the establishment of a green investment facility, the formalization of artisanal mining via the Ghana Gold Board, and large-scale ecosystem restoration.

The report examines the 'electrotech fast-track' for 74 Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) nations, arguing that rapid cost declines in solar, batteries, and electric end-use technologies allow these countries to bypass the 'fossil detour'. It highlights that 46% of CVF nations, by electricity demand, have already surpassed the US in solar penetration. The document details how solar is now less capital-intensive than fossil fuels and how decentralized solar-battery systems are becoming cheaper than grid extension for remote areas. It further argues that transitioning to electrotech reduces the $155 billion annual fossil fuel import drain and leverages CVF nations' strategic assets in critical minerals and manufacturing to gain geopolitical influence.