Agriculture

The document analyzes the stagnation of African agricultural productivity, attributing it to historical factors like slavery, colonialism, and a lack of tenure reform. It contrasts a 'Current Path' forecast—characterized by increasing food import dependence and low yields—with an 'Agriculture scenario' where targeted interventions in AgTech, irrigation, and soil health lead to significant poverty reduction and GDP growth. The report emphasizes the need for food self-sufficiency and value addition within Africa over a reliance on raw commodity exports.

• Africa's agricultural yields have historically lagged behind the rest of the world; by 2020, they were approximately 3.7 tons per hectare below the global average.
• Under the 'Current Path' forecast, Africa's agricultural import bill is projected to rise from US$114 billion in 2019 to US$510 billion by 2043, increasing vulnerability to international price fluctuations.
• The 'Agriculture scenario' predicts that by 2043, Africa could produce 486 million metric tons of additional food compared to the Current Path, reducing the import bill by US$212 billion and increasing export earnings by US$227.6 billion.
• Insecure land tenure is a primary barrier to productivity; an estimated 90% of rural land in Africa is not formally documented, and up to 60% of land in sub-Saharan Africa is held under customary ownership.
• Climate change and environmental degradation severely impact yields, with 95% of the continent's cultivation relying on rain rather than irrigation, and an estimated 4 million hectares of forest cut down annually.
• Africa exports high volumes of raw commodities with minimal value addition; for example, 90% of the continent's cashew nuts are exported for processing overseas, and Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire receive only 5% to 6% of the US$130bn annual cocoa market revenue.
• Agricultural technologies (AgTech), including AI-driven soil mapping and mobile-based credit and insurance, can significantly increase farm-level incomes and yields.
• The 'Agriculture scenario' is expected to reduce the number of extremely poor Africans (living on less than US$1.90 daily) to 339 million (15%) by 2043, compared to 398 million (18%) in the Current Path.
• The 10-year Fertilizer and Soil Health Action Plan 2023-2033 aims to triple fertiliser use from 18 kg/ha in 2020 to 54 kg/ha by 2033.
• Poor infrastructure and high post-harvest losses hinder food security; agricultural loss and waste in Africa is 24%, reaching up to 30% in West Africa.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Agriculture. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Agriculture. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Agriculture |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026agriculture, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Agriculture}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }