Agriculture

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the historical structural challenges of African agriculture and models an 'Agriculture scenario' to demonstrate how a transition toward high-productivity, technology-driven farming could reduce food insecurity and poverty by 2043.

• Africa's agricultural productivity has historically lagged behind the rest of the world, with yields remaining approximately half of the global average for successive generations. By 2020, yields in Africa were about 4 tons per hectare, which was 3.7 tons below the world average.
• The continent faces severe food insecurity, with 278 million Africans experiencing undernutrition in 2021. Moderate and severe food insecurity prevalence was 58% in 2021, with particularly high undernourishment rates in East Africa (30%) and Central Africa (33%).
• African agricultural exports are dominated by raw commodities with minimal value addition. For example, Africa produces 70% of global cocoa and 45% of global cashew nuts, but producers receive a small fraction of the market revenue, such as 5% to 6% of the US$130bn annual cocoa market for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
• Insecure land tenure is a primary barrier to agricultural investment. An estimated 90% of rural land in Africa is not formally documented, and up to 60% of national land in sub-Saharan Africa is held under customary or traditional ownership, making it difficult for farmers to use land as a bankable asset for credit.
• The 'Agriculture scenario' models a transformation where Africa's agricultural production volumes more than double by 2043, producing 486 million metric tons of additional food compared to the 'Current Path'. This would reduce the agricultural import bill by US$212 billion and increase export earnings by US$227.6 billion.
• The Agriculture scenario predicts a significant reduction in extreme poverty (using a US$1.90 benchmark). By 2043, the number of extremely poor Africans would drop to 339 million (15%), compared to 398 million (18%) under the Current Path.
• Agricultural technology (AgTech) is identified as a key driver for overcoming market barriers. Examples include Hello Tractor for mechanization, OCP's AI-driven soil mapping, and blockchain-based insurance in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda, which provides coverage for over 20,000 farmers.
• Fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa is critically low at 22 kg per hectare, compared to a world average of 146 kg per hectare. To address this, the AU's Fertilizer and Soil Health Action Plan 2023-2033 aims to triple fertilizer use to 54 kg/ha by 2033.
• Climate change and deforestation pose severe risks to productivity. Africa has experienced over 350 extreme drought events in the last 100 years, and an estimated 4 million hectares of forest land are cut down annually, which increases flooding and soil erosion.
• The report highlights Zimbabwe's land redistribution programme (1992-2010) as a cautionary example of how expropriation without due process can destroy a productive sector, contributing to an increase in extreme poverty from 10% in 2000 to 37% in 2020.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Agriculture. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Agriculture. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Agriculture |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026agriculture, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Agriculture}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/04-agriculture/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }